Re: Gas Tax Killers - Hybrid autos that plug-in at night - use minimal gasoline

"Larry Gross" <gross.larry@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

electricity, roads, water/sewer, all have extensive infrastructure...
and the goal of those who build the infrastructure is to size to meet
peak loads. Otherwise.. you get brownouts, gridlock and no running
water at peak hrs.

Correct. And a major shift to electricity to power vehicles will be a
huge new demand that will exceed the peak handling ability of the
existing infrastructure. The current infrastructure has been sized for
the existing loads, not contemplating the massive use of electricity to
replace gasoline.

Some modest use will not be a problem, but any general shift to hybrids
has implications not only on the generating capacity of existing plants,
but also on the capacity of the distribution network including high
voltage transmission lines down to the wires in local neighborhoods.

All three are in various stages of reconfiguring rates to balance out
the load .. or to put it another way... make peak-load useage more
expensive and to encourage "time-shifting" to defer useage to hour
where there is available capacity.

The difference between the peak and the off-peak demand is only about
25% or 30%. There can be shifting of demand to some extent, but if a
new demand is large enough, no amount of shifting will avoid exceeding
the existing peak loads. A major shift to the use of plug-in hybrids
will be such a demand.

Here is a site that tracks real-time and historic energy demand, showing
the peaks and valleys, plus the capacity:

http://currentenergy.lbl.gov/ca/index.php

You can see how little difference there is between the daytime peak and
nighttime off-peak demands. Try looking at a date during the summer in
California when air conditioning loads are high.

Plug-in hybrids probably will end up with a box similiar to what I
have on my water heater. Recharge power will only be provided once the
network power load falls below max ...

No doubt. That means charging won't start until about midnight in the
summer, and will have to be complete in 6 hours, to be acceptable to
most people. For a two-car family, that drives each car a modest 15,000
miles a year, if the predominant energy source is electricity, then the
electric demand for recharge alone will be about double the normal
energy use of the house, but compressed into only 1/4 of the day. That
will create a new peak load on the system.

But with regard to choosing a more expensive "plug-in" vs a
conventional gasoline engine... if at this point of time... a consumer
cannot predict... whether gasoline will become more expensive than
electricity.. would the "insurance" of having a "dual-fuel" vehicle
be attractive to some?

I suspect an even greater incentive will be if there are any more
shortages of fuel, and lineups at gas stations. People will spend extra
for what they percieve will be an assured supply of energy. The price
of energy has historically tended to move up in lock-step, in that as
the price of one type of energy increases, it encourages demand for
other types, which cause the price of that second source to increase.
The current natural gas price increases are a good example.

If a large part of the population decides to opt for vehicles that
accept dual power sources, any shift away from gasoline will lower
demand, and therefore the price of gasoline, and the increased demand
for electricity will increase prices. Over time, things will tend to
equalize.
.

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