Re: OT - Bush Curse stalks the land...Economy shrinks at fastest pace in 26 years

On 28 Feb 2009 04:16:15 GMT, Curly Surmudgeon
<CurlySurmudgeon@xxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Fri, 27 Feb 2009 22:51:06 -0500, Observer wrote:

On Fri, 27 Feb 2009 19:00:10 -0800 (PST), Too_Many_Tools
<too_many_tools@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Feb 27, 3:33 pm, Observer <nob...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:39:09 -0800 (PST), Too_Many_Tools

<too_many_to...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
More evidence that the experts are underestimating the problem...and
likely don't have a clue as to where the bottom is yet.

Be sure to thank your favorite Republican for this unique priviledge
to live this historical event The Great Depression 2.0 when you are
standing in the soup line in the future.

My favorite Republican is Ron Paul.  Kindly detail how he is culpable
for the economic meltdown.

I'll wait.

Soup lines?  Doubtful, when they can issue food stamps.





TMT

Economy shrinks at fastest pace in 26 years Economy shrinks at
faster-than-expected 6.2 percent pace in fourth quarter, worst in 26
years
Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Friday February 27, 2009, 2:53 pm EST

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The economy contracted at a staggering 6.2 percent
pace at the end of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, as
consumers and businesses ratcheted back spending, plunging the
country deeper into recession.

The Commerce Department report released Friday showed the economy
sinking much faster than the 3.8 percent annualized drop for the
October-December quarter first estimated last month. It also was
considerably weaker than the 5.4 percent annualized decline
economists expected.

A much sharper cutback in consumer spending -- which accounts for
about 70 percent of economic activity -- along with a bigger drop in
U.S. exports sales, and reductions in business spending and
inventories all contributed to the largest revision on records dating
to 1976.

Looking ahead, economists predict consumers and businesses will keep
cutting back spending, making the first six months of this year
especially rocky.

"Right now we're in the period of maximum recession stress, where the
big cuts are being made," said economist Ken Mayland, president of
ClearView Economics.

On Wall Street, stocks were down slightly, but rebounded from earlier
lows as investors appeared to second-guess Citigroup Inc.'s plans to
turn over a bigger piece of itself to the government in a move
designed to keep the banking giant alive and bolster its capital in
the face of growing losses amid the global recession. The Dow Jones
industrials lost about 25 points in afternoon trading.

The new report offered grim proof that the economy's economic
tailspin accelerated in the fourth quarter under a slew of negative
forces feeding on each other. The economy started off 2008 on feeble
footing, picked up a bit of speed in the spring and then contracted
at an annualized rate of 0.5 percent in the third quarter.

The faster downhill slide in the final quarter of last year came as
the financial crisis -- the worst since the 1930s -- intensified.

Consumers at the end of the year slashed spending by the most in 28
years. They chopped spending on cars, furniture, appliances, clothes
and other things. Businesses retrenched sharply, too, dropping the ax
on equipment and software, home building and commercial construction.

Before Friday's report was released, many economists were projecting
an annualized drop of 5 percent in the current January-March quarter.
However, given the fourth quarter's showing and the dismal state of
the jobs market, Mayland believes a decline of closer to 6 percent in
the current quarter is possible.

The nation's unemployment rate is now at 7.6 percent, the highest in
more than 16 years. The Federal Reserve expects the jobless rate to
rise to close to 9 percent this year, and probably remain above
normal levels of around 5 percent into 2011.

A smaller decline in the economy is expected for the second quarter
of this year. But the new GDP figure -- like the old one -- marked
the weakest quarterly showing since an annualized drop of 6.4 percent
in the first quarter of 1982, when the country was suffering through
an intense recession.

"It's going to be a challenging 2009," Scott Davis, chief executive
officer of global shipping giant UPS, said Thursday while speaking to
the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington.

American consumers -- spooked by vanishing jobs, sinking home values
and shrinking investment portfolios have cut back. In turn, companies
are slashing production and payrolls. Rising foreclosures are
aggravating the already stricken housing market, hard-to-get credit
has stymied business investment and is crimping the ability of some
consumers to make big-ticket purchases.

It's creating a self-perpetuating vicious cycle that Washington
policymakers are finding hard to break.

To jolt life back into the economy, President Barack Obama recently
signed a $787 billion recovery package of increased government
spending and tax cuts. The president also unveiled a $75 billion plan
to stem home foreclosures and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner
said as much as $2 trillion could be plowed into the financial system
to jump-start lending.

For all of 2008, the economy grew by just 1.1 percent, weaker than
the government initially estimated. That was down from a 2 percent
gain in 2007 and marked the slowest growth since the last recession
in 2001.

With Friday's figures, Mayland lowered his forecast for this year to
show a deeper contraction of just over 2 percent.

In the fourth quarter, consumers cut spending at a 4.3 percent pace.
That was deeper than the initial 3.5 percent annualized drop and
marked the biggest decline since the second quarter of 1980.

Businesses slashed spending on equipment and software at an
annualized pace of 28.8 percent in the final quarter of last year.
That also was deeper than first reported and was the worst showing
since the first quarter of 1958.

Fallout from the housing collapse spread to other areas. Builders cut
spending on commercial construction projects by 21.1 percent, the
most since the first quarter of 1975. Home builders slashed spending
at a 22.2 percent pace, the most since the start of 2008.

A sharper drop in U.S. exports also factored into the weaker fourth-
quarter performance. Economic troubles overseas are sapping demand
for domestic goods and services.

Businesses also cut investments in inventories -- as they scrambled
to reduce stocks in the face of dwindling customer demand -- another
factor contributing to the weaker fourth-quarter reading. The
government last month thought businesses had boosted inventories,
which added to gross domestic product, or GDP.

GDP is the value of all goods and services produced in the United
States and is the best barometer of the country's economic health.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke earlier this week told Congress that the
economy is suffering a "severe contraction" and is likely to keep
shrinking in the first six months of this year. But he planted a seed
of hope that the recession might end his year if the government
managed to prop up the shaky banking system.

Even in the best-case scenario that the recession ends this year and
an economic recovery happens next year, unemployment is likely to
keep rising.

That's partly because many analysts don't think the early stages of
any recovery will be vigorous, and because companies won't be
inclined to ramp up hiring until they feel confident that any
economic rebound will have staying power.

More job losses were announced this week. JPMorgan Chase & Co. on
Thursday said it would eliminate about 12,000 jobs as it absorbs the
operations of failed savings and loan Washington Mutual Inc. That
figure includes 9,200 cuts announced previously and 2,800 jobs
expected to be lost through attrition.

The NFL said Wednesday that the league dropped 169 jobs through
buyouts, layoffs and other reductions. Textile maker Milliken & Co.
said it would cut 650 jobs at facilities worldwide, while jeweler
Zale Corp. said it will close 115 stores and eliminate 245 positions.

AP Business Writer Harry Weber in Atlanta contributed to this report.

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The last official act of any government is the looting of the nation.-
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Unemployment is still low...that is changing..rapidly.

"Official" numbers in CA is ~10%. Is that low?

Yes, in two ways. 10% is lower than unemployment will be in the near
future. 10% is also low in comparison to reality. "Real" unemployment
is roughly twice that. If you include underemployment it rises to about
triple the official figure.

Soup lines could easily start again.

Food stamps are usually used by those who have a home....with a mailing
address.

Noted.

10,000 households a day now are being served foreclosure notices.

See a possible trend starting....

TMT

You failed to address:

My favorite Republican is Ron Paul.  Kindly detail how he is culpable
for the economic meltdown.

Yes, I'd like to hear that too.

TMT paints with a wide brush, and doesn't like being corrected. He
also is quick to dispense insults, should you disagree with his
opinions.

Pity.





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The last official act of any government is the looting of the nation.
.

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