Re: Animal disease risks to humans - MRSA


"John Husvar" <jhusvar@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:jhusvar-72FD07.09105828062007@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In article <1L2dncdzKNg5Mx7bnZ2dnUVZ8tqinZ2d@xxxxxx>,
"Pat Gardiner" <patgardiner@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Anyway, pig herds, that have suffered multiple epidemics in recent years
are
now infecting the farmers with MRSA. I'm very suspicious that the common
idea that hospitals and locker rooms are the main source is wrong.
Livestock
and meat may well be the real source.

Thank you for the explanation. That's an interesting hypothesis.

If this virus has crossed the species barrier, things could get very
interesting indeed.

Guess I should put off buying a Pot-Belly Pig, eh? (not to mention
taking care buying bacon:)

Pat's Note: There has been a development.

This extract says a lot about veterinary attitudes, both in the
US and Britain.

They thought they had FMD and only released the information that they had
Circovirus on their hands, because the fact they had a problem leaked. Just
as in Britain the words are loaded with prejudice

If it had not leaked, they would have said nothing. It is a very short step
from there into lying and intimidation. A slippery slope that Britain's
State Veterinary Service have long since slid down

Actually the USDA had a big problem with Circovirus, but decided that they
did not.

They were right, they were looking into the abyss, and may well have fallen
into it. Circovirus is perhaps more dangerous than Foot and Mouth.

http://www.thepigsite.com/swinenews/14787/market-preview-protecting-valuable-pork-exports

Foreign Animal Disease Impact
Some readers may not know it, but we looked into the abyss of this matter on
Wednesday when a load of Canadian pigs was quarantined at a Minnesota
packing plant under suspicion of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Laboratory
test results showed the pigs only had enterovirus and circovirus, but USDA's
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) was apparently quite
concerned. APHIS head Dr. Ron DeHaven pointed out that USDA investigates
400-500 potential trade-disrupting disease outbreaks each year and that the
agency does not usually report negative test results. But this one occurred
at a packing plant, and word had spread that a potential problem existed, so
APHIS felt compelled to respond.

And what might have been the impact had FMD been confirmed? I'm no expert
but FMD in Canadian pigs on U.S. soil would, I presume, mean that exports
from both countries would have been blocked. In 2006, the U.S. exported
2.397 million metric tons (mmt) or 2.642 million tons of carcass-weight
pork, 14.2% of total production of 9.562 mmt or 10,540 tons. Using a hog
demand elasticity of -.25 (and thus a price flexibility of -4), forcing that
much product back on the U.S. market would drive prices downward by roughly
57%.

So, we would have to deal with about 20% more product in the Canadian-U.S.
market for the short run if a foreign animal disease outbreak affected both
countries. Using a hog demand elasticity of -.25 and thus a
quantity-to-price multiplier of -4, this would imply an 80% drop in hog
prices. That is a very shocking number and it is possible that consumers
would rally to the aid of producers just as Canadians did with the beef
industry in 2003 -- but the impacts would still be catastrophic.

I hate using poultry analogies, but we indeed have a lot of eggs in this
export basket. It is imperative that everyone on both sides of the border do
everything possible to reduce the probability of a foreign animal disease
outbreak. The price of failure is quite high.


--
Regards
Pat Gardiner
www.go-self-sufficient.com


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