The Big One

Does anyone else think that 2006 will see the first combat use of a nuclear
weapon in 60 years ?
By mouthing off the way they have it is beginning to look like the Iranians
have painted themselves into a corner , leaving Israel no option but to use
The Big One (or more likely , three Small Ones , one on each of their three
main targets in Iran ).
The Israeli ability to repeat their actions in the Baghdad/Osirak thing is
unlikely , given that they have three widely separate and well-defended
targets .
In the unlikely event that that particular scenario comes to a happy end ,
there is also the on again , off again problem between India and Pakistan .
I have been assured by Indian friends that the chance of a long-term
peaceful outcome in that part of the world is roughly zero .
Iran will probably be nuclear-capable within a few months , giving us a
reasonable guesstimate of when the festivities will commence .
We are not talking an end-of-the-world scenario here , but a localised
house-cleaning that will alter the balance of power in the middle east .
If the Israelis strike first , my guess is that they will limit their
targets to the three obvious ones in Iran , (Bushehr , Natanz and Arak) .
If the Israelis are on the receiving end of an Iranian attack , they will
probably strike back with full force and target a few other middle-eastern
countries to stop them taking advantage of the disaster .
By the way , Happy New Year to all .
Sheerluck


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