CNN Special Report On Bird Flu H5N1 (continued)
- From: Andy <andylee@xxxxxxxx>
- Date: Thu, 06 Oct 2005 01:10:16 -0500
Here is part 2 of the report which aired on 10-5-05.
PAULA ZAHN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening, everyone. Welcome to a middle of
the week here.
Tonight, I want to take a very close look at a threat that could be
even more devastating than a terrorist attack, because every single
town and city could be at risk.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ZAHN (voice-over): A disease so deadly that, if you get the virus,
there's no cure and there's a 50/50 chance you'll die.
GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm concerned about
what an avian flu outbreak could mean for the United States and the
world.
ZAHN: What's the worst-case scenario and what are we doing to stop it?
ZAHN: So, how scary is this? A disease spreads across the globe and
kills 100 million people. Well, it happened 87 years ago with a flu
outbreak in 1918, 100 million dead.
That's a breathtaking number, but here's one I think is even more
frightening. One health official says a global outbreak, a pandemic of
avian flu, could kill 150 million people. So far, only about 60 people
have died from avian flu, and it hasn't adapted yet to spread from
person to person.
Health officials in Asia are trying to keep it that way by killing
thousands upon thousands of birds whenever they suspect there's a
local outbreak. But, today, a scientist who used to preserve tissue
and reverse genetics to recreate the deadly 1980 virus -- 1918 virus
-- said there are eerie similarities between that flu strain and avian
flu.
And just yesterday, President Bush said the military might have to
quarantine whole cities if that flu strikes here. And, last week, the
secretary of health said he doesn't sleep at night because of this
threat.
Do we have your attention yet?
Well, senior medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta joins me now with
more information.
Always good to see you, Doctor.
What did we learn from this report?
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, as you
said, there are some significant similarities between the 1918 flu
virus, which killed some say up to 100 million, and the avian flu
virus.
What we're talking about here specifically is a virus that's pretty
common, but has certain mutations and these changes in the virus. And
these changes are important, because one change might make the virus
suddenly a significant killer, as has already happened with the avian
flu virus, killing, as you say, 50 percent -- more than 50 percent of
the people that get infected.
Another mutation, the one that hasn't happened yet, but could happen,
is one that makes it more easily transmissible from human to human.
You know, Paula, it's so interesting to sort of look at the science of
this. A small just tiny, just microscopic change in the coding in one
of these viruses could change it to create a worldwide pandemic. That
hasn't happened yet, but that's what these scientists have been
looking at, Paula.
ZAHN: But you use a very salient word there: could. And I guess we
hear these breathtaking numbers and you have got to wonder if someone
out there is hyping this or is this something we really need to be
concerned about?
GUPTA: Smart people out there are saying that this is being hyped.
And you're going to hear different things from different people,
certainly. But keep in mind a couple of things. These pandemics, which
is just a worldwide epidemic, tend to come in cycles. There have been
pandemics in the past. Everyone, just about everyone agrees with this
point, that we are probably overdue for some sort of pandemic, meaning
some virus that the world has never seen before that infects an
alarmingly large number of people who have no immunity against it. So,
whether it's this particular virus, the avian flu, or something else
later on down the road, who knows, but most people, even the skeptics,
agree that it's probably going to happen. It's not a question of if
anymore, but more a question of when it might happen.
ZAHN: But the skeptics also have to agree with the fact that there
seems to be more of a risk that this flu carries than other kinds of
flus.
GUPTA: Yes.
You know, what's so striking about this flu -- and, Paula, everyone's
talking about the 1918 flu. That had a 5 percent mortality. That
means, out of 100 people, it killed five. This has a 50 percent
mortality. That is what has got everyone's attention. That is an
extremely, extremely deadly virus. Even by virus standards, this is
very, very deadly.
If it kills -- you know, in 1918, that Spanish flu or that particular
flu bug, probably everyone in the world breathed that virus in at some
point or another. If that happens with avian flu, because it becomes
easily transmissible, I mean, it's mind-boggling, really, Paula.
ZAHN: But let's talk about what you would do if it actually comes
here. We have a severe shortage of a vaccine that people say wouldn't
even be that helpful and then there's this Tamiflu stuff that's pretty
widely available right now. Would that make any difference?
GUPTA: Yes, well, you know, the Tamiflu had -- the hard part about
these studies in terms of figuring out whether it's effective is, in
order to study it, you'd have to knowingly expose people to avian flu.
And no one is going to do that as part of the study.
So Tamiflu appears to have some benefit in the laboratory. Would it
work if it actually needed to work because there was a lot of cases of
it? We don't really know. And, as far as a vaccine goes, Paula, this
is -- this is kind of sad. We don't really have an approved vaccine
right now. And if this virus were to mutate today, let's say it was
mutating right now, we would have to create a vaccine. That would take
six months from now to actually develop. So, it's just a very slow and
arduous process. Preparation is going to be tough.
People talk about quarantines possibly. That might be part of the at
least early answer, Paula.
ZAHN: And, of course, we have heard critics of that possibility say it
simply won't work.
GUPTA: Right.
ZAHN: So, we're going to debate all this a little bit later on in
tonight's show.
Senior medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, as always, thanks. So,
what exactly happens if bird flu goes global and lands here in the
United States? Well, it could mean putting the whole country under
quarantine city by city and, as President Bush suggested yesterday,
having the military enforce them.
Here's senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAMIE MCINTYRE, CNN SR. MILITARY AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT (voice- over):
Worst case, a mutant strain of avian flu that can be passed from
person to person hits America's biggest city, New York. The president
orders active duty and National Guard troops to seal the island of
Manhattan, closing the airports, including Newark, JFK and La Guardia,
and shutting the city's numerous bridges and tunnels.
It's a scenario not unlike the one depicted in the 1995 movie
"Outbreak."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "OUTBREAK")
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Your town is being quarantined.
DUSTIN HOFFMAN, ACTOR: We got 19 dead, you got 100 more infected. It's
spreading like a brushfire.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What are you talking about?
HOFFMAN: If one of them's got it, then 10 of them have got it now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MCINTYRE: But how practical is the idea that any city, much less one
with as many ways in and out as New York, can be sealed by military
force?
MICHAEL O'HANLON, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: How do you possibly limit the
flow of people and goods in and out of a city like this? New York
needs to have food brought in, it needs to have other things brought
in. You need a certain amount of crossing of the perimeter or the city
becomes uninhabitable.
MCINTYRE: The reality is these days a quarantine is more likely to
attempt to limit movement of infected people by screening passengers
at airports, confining sick people to their homes and banning large
gatherings of people where the infection can be spread.
What the military brings is the same things it brought to hurricane
relief -- logistics and manpower, especially medical facilities and
the ability to move them quickly and operate without support. Where
the issues get thorny is the Hollywood scenario -- combat troops
strong arming, possibly shooting desperate victims of a natural
disaster.
O'HANLON: It would be an ugly thing if we had to use the military.
Nobody in the armed forces would relish the thought of imposing some
kind of a martial law-like environment on their own fellow citizens,
especially on law-abiding citizens who had done nothing criminal.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MCINTYRE: One serious challenge for -- that has to be accounted for in
the federal government's pandemic response plan is protecting the
first-responders.
As you pointed out, Paula, there is no proven vaccine for avian flu.
That means they have to come up with other ways to protect the people
who would be the first ones on the scene of a disaster.
ZAHN: Jamie McIntyre at the Pentagon, thanks so much for that update.
And, by now, you're probably all wondering the same thing I am. Is the
government ready for an avian flu pandemic? An especially important
question after what we all have seen following Hurricane Katrina.
We asked senior political correspondent Candy Crowley to find out. The
answer is, not by a long shot.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SR. POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The
president's secretary of health and human services doesn't sleep that
well.
MIKE LEAVITT, SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES: We're not as
well prepared for this as we want to be and need to be and will be.
We're moving rapidly, and -- now that we can see that this particular
influenza could be a threat.
CROWLEY: The gap between what's needed and what's there is vast. Where
to begin? For starters, vaccine production is not that profitable and
the liability risk is high, so even when a dangerous virus is
identified, the U.S. does not have the ability to produce enough
vaccine.
DR. ANTHONY FAUCI, NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH: The ultimate goal is
to build a system so that you can, within a period of time, measured
in like six months from the time you get the virus in your hand, make
enough vaccine to cover everyone in this country. We are far from
there at this point. And it's going to take years to get there.
CROWLEY: Nor is there anywhere near the stockpiles of medicine the
U.S. would need for an avian flu pandemic. It is made by a company in
Switzerland.
KIM ELLIOTT, TRUST FOR AMERICA'S HEALTH: There's one manufacturer.
They're going to fill them on a first-come, first-serve basis, so
we're way down the queue. CROWLEY: We are backordered.
ELLIOTT: We are backordered. And we -- we aren't even in line for the
big orders.
CROWLEY: Up to two million people in the U.S. might need to be
hospitalized, many more people than beds. And what happens when a work
force is depleted by an estimated 25 percent who are sick or caring
for the sick or too scared to go to work? Experts at all levels say
there's no reason to be afraid now, but there is every reason to
prepare.
LEAVITT: And we will move forward to a state of preparation that I --
will give people comfort, not certainty, but comfort.
CROWLEY (on camera): We don't have enough vaccine?
ELLIOTT: No.
CROWLEY: We don't have medication to treat, enough of it to treat...
(CROSSTALK)
ELLIOTT: Yes.
CROWLEY: Our hospitals don't have enough capacity to treat the number
of patients that would come.
ELLIOTT: No.
CROWLEY: Businesses aren't prepared.
ELLIOTT: That's right.
CROWLEY: Individual families aren't prepared.
ELLIOTT: That's right.
CROWLEY: Why shouldn't I be afraid?
ELLIOTT: You need to think about being prepared but not panicked.
CROWLEY (voice-over): It may be a while before the secretary of health
and human services gets a good night's sleep.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN: That was Candy Crowley reporting for us tonight.
Now, tomorrow, Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt and
health experts from all over the world will begin meeting in
Washington to talk about the growing threat from avian flu.
And, just a short while ago, I had the chance to speak with Secretary
Leavitt about the U.S. government's ability to deal with a potential
outbreak.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN: We are hearing staggering numbers about the potential of
hundreds of millions of people being infected with this virus, a virus
that we know kills about half of the people who contract it. You're
the man in charge of making sure this country is ready for this
prospect. Are we?
LEAVITT: No. No, we're not ready, and nor is any other country on the
planet. This is something that requires substantially more attention
than it has been given anywhere, and we're now beginning to prepare
rapidly.
Now, fortunately, much of the preparation necessary for a pandemic is
common to other medical emergencies. And, so, we're not starting from
scratch, but we have a long ways to go before we're ready.
ZAHN: If there were to be a suspected case of avian flu, what is the
first thing that you would do?
LEAVITT: We would first try to contain it, wherever we found it.
The likelihood is, we would find it in the Far East somewhere. And
then the United States and our friends and allies around the world
would join together to say to that country, let us help you. And we'd
do everything we could to contain it there.
If we were unsuccessful, we'd then begin to protect the borders of the
United States in every legitimate, reasonable way to see if we could
keep it from coming here. If it then arrived, we would do all we could
to contain it in place. And we'd begin other preparations to assure
that, if it -- if we weren't successful, that there would be means of
being able to limit its damage.
ZAHN: When you talk about containing it, you know that a lot of health
officials out there are saying a quarantine isn't the answer. It
simply won't work. Your response to that?
LEAVITT: Well, it's one of the basics of public health. And there have
been incidences where it has worked. And it's -- if it doesn't work
completely, at least it slows it down and allows the rest of our
preparation to catch up.
ZAHN: The truth is, you can't really prepare for that eventuality,
because you don't know how the virus will present itself. So, is there
any way ever to truly get out in front of this and find a vaccine that
would simply prevent this?
LEAVITT: Well, actually, once we have identified a victim or some way
of being able to get ahold of the virus, our scientists at CDC and at
the National Institute of Health are very adept at being able to
develop a vaccine that will, in fact, prevent it. That's the case with
the avian flu. We have a vaccine. What we lack in this country now is
the capacity to manufacture the vaccine in sufficient doses in a short
enough time frame to meet the need.
ZAHN: Final tonight, Secretary Leavitt, you have so many health
concerns you have to worry about in this country. Where does this
avian flu fit in on a scale of one to 10?
LEAVITT: I would have to say that it is our highest public health
priority right now, the certainty -- the probability that the H5N1, or
avian flu, will be the culprit that brings the next pandemic, it's
hard to know.
But the trouble -- the signs are troubling. And so, we're responding
to it. We need to begin to think about the unthinkable, because, as we
learned in Katrina, sometimes, the unthinkable happens.
ZAHN: Secretary Leavitt, thank you for your candor tonight.
LEAVITT: Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ZAHN: And, in just a minute, I want to take you to the remote jungles
where bird flu first got started. Who's already dying and what are
their countries doing to fight it? And can they keep it from spreading
here to the U.S.?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: We're talking a lot tonight about the threat of avian flu. Right
now, the U.S. doesn't have enough vaccine, medicine or hospital beds
to even deal with a catastrophic outbreak of avian flu, a disease that
some people say could kill 150 million people all over the world. So
far, however, the disease remains in Asia, and people only seem to be
getting it for coming into contact with infected birds.
Senior Asia correspondent Mike Chinoy traveled to one of the many
places where avian flu lives and breeds.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MIKE CHINOY, CNN SENIOR ASIA CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It's so
remote, it doesn't have a name. We had to take a dug-out canoe to
reach village number four in Thanh Dong (ph) District of Southern
Vietnam's Long An Province.
And it was here we found 39-year-old To Thi Hoang, weeping over the
grave of her 10-year-old daughter, Vothi Hoang (ph), one of the latest
victims of avian influenza, bird flu.
"She kept telling me she was having breathing problems," says To Thi
Hoang. "She was crying and saying, I'm so tired. I feel like I'm going
to die." And after eight days at the Ho Chi Minh City Children's
Hospital, she died.
This is a family of simple rice farmers raising a few chickens on the
side. A few days before Vothi Hoang got sick, the family's chickens
died. They didn't know why, but doctors later confirmed it was bird
flu, and, somehow, the little girl had been infected.
(on camera): It's in villages like this, where people live in close
proximity to poultry and other animals, that virtually all the human
cases of avian flu in Vietnam have occurred, precisely the setting,
experts fear, where the virus could mutate into a form that spreads
easily among humans, with devastating consequences.
(voice-over): Aware of the danger, Vietnam has now banned the raising
of all water fowl, like ducks and geese, which can carry the virus
without showing symptoms, and ordered the slaughter of all 200,000
ducks in Ho Chi Minh City, formerly Saigon, despite the economic loss
to thousands of poultry farmers.
But even these harsh steps may not be enough. The government in Hanoi
has appealed for help from foreign scientists and for supplies of
medical and lab equipment. Although the outbreak is most severe in
Vietnam, cases of bird flu with human fatalities have been reported
recently in Thailand and Cambodia. And the disease has appeared
previously in China, Hong Kong and other countries in the region.
Dr. Hans Troedsson is the World Health Organization's man in Vietnam.
He's well aware of that what means.
HANS TROEDSSON, WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: We would see millions of
people dying. And we will have a pandemic that would shut down
societies and communities. And conservative estimation says -- it's
saying maybe five to seven million deaths. That's conservative. We
could be up to 50 or 100 million deaths.
CHINOY: It hasn't happened yet, but throughout Southeast Asia, the
virus has become endemic among poultry, especially in Vietnam. And,
even though transmission to humans remains relatively rare so far, the
disease has already killed dozens of people.
In the village where 10-year-old Vothi Hoang died, the provincial
preventive medicine chief, Ngo Van Hoang, visits the locals. His
message, be careful. Eating healthy chickens is OK, but don't cook
chickens that have gotten sick and died. And don't throw carcasses
into the river.
"There is some advice and education we have to have a community
understand," he says. "They shouldn't do these kinds of things.'
It's an uphill struggle with enormous stakes to ensure that what
happened to Vothi Hoang remains a tragic, but isolated episode, and
not the start of a global public health disaster.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
CHINOY: Paula, while Vietnam has been ground zero for this outbreak
for most of the past year, the disease has now spread to Indonesia,
which is more than three times as big, a vast archipelago, thousands
of islands, much harder to track. Seven people have died there, one
just last week. And public health officials, already anxious, are
increasingly worried -- Paula.
ZAHN: So, in the end, Mike, how forthcoming or honest are any of these
governments in the region about the potential spread of this flu?
CHINOY: Most governments have been pretty honest. They realize what's
at stake. There's a lot of cooperative effort in the region with the
World Health Organization. There have been some concerns, though,
about China. The Chinese hid the SARS epidemic initially.
And, last summer, there were reports of a mysterious outbreak in
northwestern China, where the Chinese basically closed the area down
and prevented any information getting out. A researcher here in Hong
Kong was able to surreptitiously get samples, which proved that it was
avian flu. So, there is some concern that China, with its
authoritarian political system, could be a problem if the disease
begins to spread among humans there.
ZAHN: Mike Chinoy, thank you so much.
And joining me now, John Barry, author of "The Great Influenza," the
flu outbreak in 1918 that killed 100 million people, it's believed,
all over the world, and Dr. Irwin Redlener, director of the National
Center for Disaster Preparedness at Columbia University.
Good to have both of you with us tonight.
(CROSSTALK)
ZAHN: So, John, we just mentioned that staggering number. And it's
hard to prove. You see estimates of anywhere from 30 million to 100
million people. That seems unimaginable to grasp. Paint a picture for
us of how quickly the flu spread.
JOHN BARRY, AUTHOR, "THE GREAT INFLUENZA": Well, like any influenza,
it was explosive.
All influenza viruses are bird viruses. And throughout history, three
to four times a century, a new bird virus will jump to people. And
whenever that happens, you have a pandemic; 1918 was lethal. But many
of your viewers and myself lived through the 1968 pandemic and
probably didn't even know there was one, so it's not automatically
lethal, but it did spread explosively.
It will -- it will sicken between 15 percent and 40 percent of the
population.
ZAHN: So, do those factors exist today that could allow that same kind
of thing to happen with avian flu?
BARRY: Oh, certainly, without any doubt. If anything, it moves more
quickly because of air travel.
ZAHN: And, Dr. Redlener, the one thing that we just heard Mike
Leavitt, the HHS secretary, says, is, we are not prepared for this.
Why aren't we?
DR. IRWIN REDLENER, NATIONAL CENTER FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS: Well,
there's three factors, really that have been determinative here in why
we're not prepared.
The first is that it's taken us a long time to develop the
technologies that allow for very rapid development of the vaccine once
the virus is identified. So, there's a big lag time between the
identification of the actual virus and then the -- then when we can
get a supply of vaccine that's -- that's reasonable.
The second thing is, we put ourselves in this horrible position where
we didn't think about ordering the antiviral medication, what people
refer to as Tamiflu, until very, very late, after many other countries
had already ordered it. And we had a backlog of a hundred -- I mean, a
billion doses already on order at Roche, the only company that makes
it. So, we're just in line now. And I doubt that we are going to get
even what we wanted.
ZAHN: But not a sure-shot cure, anyway.
REDLENER: Not a sure-shot cure, but...
ZAHN: But they're saying one of two treatment that works.
REDLENER: Right.
And then the third factor, of course, is that the whole health and
public health system in the United States is just completely not ready
to handle any kind of massive number of victims who get sick and
really sick from flu.
ZAHN: John, the secretary also said that, on a scale of one to 10,
this is a 10, that it is indeed this country's highest public health
concern today. Why now?
BARRY: Why now?
Obviously, because -- well, let's put it this way. Between 1957 and 19
-- excuse me, 1968 and 1997, there were two known occurrences where a
bird virus infected a person. Neither of them were fatal. Between 1997
and today, three different viruses have infected roughly 300 people,
and two of those viruses have killed people.
So, you know, the odds are -- again, there's a pandemic three, four
times a century. We haven't had one in almost 40 years. It's just --
you know, chance suggests that we're due for one.
ZAHN: Sure. You can crunch these statistics and interpret it that way.
(CROSSTALK)
ZAHN: But you have critics of this administration saying they're much
hyping this right now.
Dr. Redlener, what do you think?
REDLENER: Well, the problem is, we just came off a disastrous response
to a major natural catastrophe in Katrina and then Rita in the
evacuation efforts that we saw.
So, I think there's definitely political issues in terms of how the
administration was perceived, how competent we looked at a country.
And I'm sure there's a lot of panic within the White House and the
administration about not wanting to be caught ill-prepared again. But,
unfortunately, there's very little we could do about that at this
point.
ZAHN: When could it potentially hit here, any day? Are you talking
about six months? What are we talking about?
REDLENER: Well, it's just really hard to say. We just don't know when
that virus will mutate, so it's able to be transmitted among people,
as opposed to just from, say, poultry to a person or a bird to a
person.
So, it could happen this year; it could happen two years from now,
five years from now. But I think it's pretty inevitable, just because
of the frequency of this, as John was saying, that it's going to
occur. Just, it's not clear when.
ZAHN: So frightening.
(CROSSTALK)
BARRY: Could I say...
ZAHN: Yes. Please jump in, John.
BARRY: In terms of the administration's actions -- I'm a Democrat, but
the fact is, this has been on the administration's agenda since 2001,
before September 11. They were paying close attention to it before
Katrina and planning initiatives and had vastly expanded it. So, on
this one issue, I'm not particularly cynical about their motives.
ZAHN: You don't seem so convinced, Dr. Redlener, that that isn't...
REDLENER: I'm not so convinced.
ZAHN: ... politically motivated.
(CROSSTALK)
REDLENER: There were people in the administration, as John says, that
were very interested in this. It didn't reach the White House's level
of attention as it is until very, very recently.
ZAHN: Well, we appreciate your both educating us tonight.
Dr. Irwin Redlener and John Barry, thank you, again.
REDLENER: Thank you.
(CROSSTALK)
ZAHN: And just don't worry about bird flu. There's a mystery disease
that's even closer to home. Now, coming up, what's killing people just
across the U.S. border in one of Canada's most modern cities?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ZAHN: I know after hearing so much about the threat of avian flu, what
you're about to hear may be even more unsettling. A nursing home just
outside of Toronto this week is ground zero for a deadly medical
mystery.
So far, 16 people have been killed and nearly 40 more are sick. And
while it's not avian flu, no one knows exactly what's causing it.
Keith Oppenheim is in Toronto for us tonight, has the very latest
details for us right now. Hi, Keith.
KEITH OPPENHEIM, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Paula. And this is a story
which certainly sounds bad, and it is getting some people in Toronto
understandably nervous. The thing is, viral outbreaks of this kind are
a lot more common than you might think.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
OPPENHEIM (voice-over): The Seven Oaks Home for the Aged in suburban
Toronto is under attack. The culprit, a virus that still has not been
identified. It was just a week and a half ago some of the most
vulnerable patients at Seven Oaks began to get very ill.
DR. DAVID MCKEOWN, TORONTO DEPT. OF PUBLIC HEALTH: This outbreak has
resulted today in six additional deaths among ill residents.
OPPENHEIM: Toronto public health officials now report the death toll
has risen to 16 residents of the nursing home. All had previous
medical conditions. Most were in their 80s and 90s.
In addition, 72 other people have been infected by the virus. Some are
staff at Seven Oaks, some visitors. One woman whose husband is a
resident worried about the unknown.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They're doing their best -- let's put it that way
-- to get it under control, but what it really is, I don't know.
OPPENHEIM: Three different labs in Canada are trying to identify the
virus. But it turns out in more than half of outbreaks like this,
health officials in Ontario are unable to isolate the source of the
disease.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A significant percentage of outbreaks just never
will find the organism, but we're looking for everything we can think
of.
OPPENHEIM: Thirty-eight people exposed to the virus have been taken to
Toronto hospitals. Officials here say the health of some patients is
deteriorating, but most are getting better. A nine-year- old boy
wondered what will happen to his grandfather.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I hope the hospital's safer and that he can be
healthy and not die.
OPPENHEIM: In the meantime, the nursing home has been closed to new
patients and is, for the most part, keeping its doors shut.
AL DOBBINS, NURSING HOME RESIDENT: To me has been cooped up, you know?
I mean, I'm so -- I'm so used to the outside, you know? And all of a
sudden, bang.
OPPENHEIM: As dire as all this may seem, health experts here say this
is all an extreme example of a common occurrence. Across Canada and
the U.S., viral outbreaks routinely kill elderly and sick patients
with weakened immune systems.
MCKEOWN: It's within the range of our experience in Ontario, but it's
definitely at the severe end.
OPPENHEIM: With no new cases reported in the last 24 hours, health
experts here believe the mysterious outbreak is being contained. They
say it poses no danger to the general public. But for the people who
have relatives at Seven Oaks, it may be some time before they can feel
that the threat of contagious illness is behind them.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
K OPPENHEIM: Keep in mind it was just two years ago there was a severe
outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, right here in
Toronto. Forty-four people died. There were certainly a lot of jitters
in the community about that back then.
But the difference between the SARS case and this one is this one
pertains to a single long-care facility and having said that, this is
the worst of its kind in Toronto with 16 people dead. Epidemiologists
tell us in general, Paula, that while it's very common, Toronto is
dealing, again, with an extreme example of a common occurrence.
ZAHN: Yes, it's very scary. Keith Oppenheim, thanks.
.
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