Re: Alternative source of fuel oil

Larry Caldwell wrote: 
Vic Dura wrote:


What happens when the developers sink $millions into a plant based on
$65/bbl oil and then the Arabs drop the price? Just like they did in
the early 1980s.



The Arabs are already dropping the price as much as they can.  Demand
has overtaken production capacity.  The Arabs haven't had much control
since their oil embargo backfired on them in the 1970s.  Nowadays, the
US gets its oil from Mexico and Venezuela.  We developed those oil
fields after the Arabs cut us off.  At current prices, Alberta tar
sands are going to quickly be going into production, and much of the
Canadian prairie is underlain with a mile thick layer of hydrocarbon
sludge.  It is doubtful the Canadians are going to be willing to strip
mine millions of acres of land to get at the tar.  Also, turning tar
into liquid fuel requires catalytic cracking and hydrogenation.

Manufactured fuels are the shape of the future.  Biofuels are only one
source.  Coal can be processed into artificial diesel, and nuclear
power can be used to generate hydrogen.  Switching to alternative fuels
will take some of the price pressure off of petroleum, but by the time
we complete the switchover, crude oil prices will be several times
higher than they are today.


Ah yes.  These are the wonders of unregulated markets especially when
they get combined with futures traders.  I'm sure all of the people
in Caulifornia remember what happened after their electricity market
was deregulated.  Not that regulated markets are all that much better.
But at least they can smooth out the fluctuations much as our local
energy suppliers will use a "budget plan" to spread the peak costs
over the entire year instead of having the electric bill soar during
the summer when the air conditioning is running and having the heating
oil/natural gas/propane bill soar when the winter is especially cold.

--
"The career politicians are keeping the elevator at the penthouse
floor and not sending it down for the rest of us." - Kinky Friedman
.

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