Re: The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth
- From: "Ouroboros_Rex" <its@xxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 2 Apr 2008 11:16:10 -0500
"FYIS" <Danl_K@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:mc-dnbhCj8GYIG_anZ2dnUVZ_oKhnZ2d@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Tuesday, April 01, 2008
by John Lott, is the author of Freedomnomics and a senior research
scientist at the
University of Maryland.
A Nexis search on news stories during the three-month period from July
2000 through
September 2000 using the keywords "economy recession US" produces 1,388.
By contrast,
the same search over just the last month finds 3,166. Or, even more
telling, take the
three months from July through September last year, when the GDP was
growing at a
phenomenal 4.9 percent. The same type of Google search shows 2,475 news
stories.
Over 78 percent more negative news stories discussed a recession when the
economy
under a Republican was soaring than occurred under a Democrat when the
economy was
shrinking.
A little perspective on the economy would be helpful. The average
unemployment rate
during President Clinton was 5.2 percent. The average under President
George W. Bush
is just slightly below 5.2. The current unemployment rate is 4.8 percent,
almost half
a percentage point lower than these averages.
The difference, of course, is that today, millions of people have fallen
out the other end of the unemployment stats.
The average inflation rate under Clinton was 2.6 percent, under Bush it is
2.7
percent. Indeed, one has to go back to the Kennedy administration to find
a lower
average rate. True the inflation rate over the last year has gone up to 4
percent, but
that is still lower than the average inflation rate under all the
presidents from
Nixon through Bush's father.
Yes, inflation tends to be low during a recession. lol
Gas prices are indeed up 33 percent over the last year, but to get an
average of 4
percent means that lots of other prices must have stayed the same or gone
down. On
other fronts, seasonally adjusted civilian employment is 650,000 people
greater than
it was a year ago.
In other words, 1/3 the expected job growth just due to population
increase. =)
Personal income grew at a strong half of one percent in just
February.
Despite all that, this last week, Barack Obama proclaimed "As most experts
know, our
economy is in a recession." Hillary Clinton made similar staements last
fall. Yet, as
any economist knows, a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative
growth, and
we haven't even had one single quarter of negative growth reported. The
economy slowed
down significantly during the end of last year, but that was after a
sizzling annual
GDP growth rate of 4.9 percent in the third quarter.
The media's focus on the negative side of everything surely helps explain
people's
pessimism. Indeed, research has indicated that media bias is real. Kevin
Hassett and I
looked at 12,620 newspaper and wire service headlines from 1985 through
2004 for
stories on the release of official government releasing numbers on the
unemployment
rate, number of people employed, gross domestic product (GDP), retail
sales, and
durable goods.
Even after accounting for how well the economy was doing (e.g., what the
unemployment
rate was and whether it was going up or down), there was still a big
difference in how
positive or negative the headlines were. Democratic presidents got about
15 percent
more positive headlines than Republicans for the same economic news.
How can different presidents get written up for the same economic news?
This is another 'free markets' hoax.
.
- References:
- The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth
- From: FYIS
- The 'Recession' Is a Media Myth
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