More on flu

In 1918-19 about 1% of Americans (~1M) died after the H1N1 avian flu virus
strain became transmissible human-to-human, and the current H5N1 is much
more lethal with more than a 50% mortality rate when transmitted
bird-to-human. We are no better equipped today than we were then, and
considering travel and population dynamics, we'll probably lose more than 1%
(>3M) if H5N1 mutates into an aerosol-transmissible form without losing
virulence. It may never happen. It may have happened ten minutes ago. If
there is anything that you, your community, the nation, or the world can do
to reduce the effect of that mutation, you should know about it. Anyone who
stands between useful knowledge and the people who need it is criminal.

The current flu shot has a proven statistical benefit. My family is
immunized. Tamiflu also offers a proven statistical benefit. I don't care if
Osama Bin Laden extracts it from his lamb stew -- I would pay most of my net
worth to get enough for my family. I'm selfish, and I'm trying.

It's not a matter of "insurance", which pays after you're dead. It's
prevention and avoidance - a different approach. Risk avoidance requires
that you know the specific virological hazards of various activities and
environments, and do what's necessary to minimize exposure and maximize
survival. You don't get that passively - you must put work into it. I'm
trying to help. Learning the realities and doing whatever you can is worth
everything to you and your family. It's only life itself that's at stake.

And if that bug does NOT become aerosol-transmissible, you're welcome to say
I cried "wolf"! That's better than knowing even one person died because I
kept the knowledge to myself.

When Dr. David Nabarro was appointed UN and WHO Avian and Human Flu
Coordinator, he injudiciously said that he was "nearly certain" that a
pandemic would break out soon, resulting in up to 150M deaths. Immediately,
a nonmedical spokesman for the U.N. withdrew that prediction and said
"...you won't hear anything like that from Dr. Nabarro again..." The clamps
were on.

The world's fingers are crossed - because that's nearly the best that can be
done at that level. But individuals, families, and communities can do a LOT!



IF YOU THINK THIS IS USEFUL, PLEASE PASS IT ON


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