Re: Weekly (or should I say weakly) picks


"-=DirtBag©" <Dirt@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:4a15a1c3$0$1599$742ec2ed@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Top Shot wrote:

"-=DirtBag©" <Dirt@xxxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:4a159af8$0$1668$742ec2ed@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Mike wrote:
On Thu, 21 May 2009 09:19:09 -0500, Top Shot wrote:

"Mike" <Mike@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:w8dRl.30420$YU2.4415@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Thu, 21 May 2009 07:22:20 -0500, Top Shot wrote:

"Mike" <Mike@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:JT4Rl.30411$YU2.13145@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Tue, 19 May 2009 14:34:32 -0700, -=DirtBag© wrote:

I mean 8% a week is a very NICE system..
$1,000 * 1.08^(52*4) = $8,956,557,972

(be a billionaire in less than 4 years)


Oh, I doubt that will happen. But, what's wrong with giving it a shot?
I
just did 17% for this week. Do I detect jealousy, angst or just
arrogance?
don't get me wrong, 8% a week is great by any standard. but what i
wrote
is a question. the above equation assumes turning over the entire
trading account (starting with $1000) each week but from what i've seen
of trading systems (daytraders.com in particular, circa 2004) this is
not
the case as there are multiple trades open at any one time such that
the
weekly gain is not on the entire trading account value but on a portion
of it. so in other words the weekly return depends on the average
number
of positions closed each week. to put numbers on it, say a trader has
a
$150,000 trading account and uses a system that holds on average 10
open
positions with an average size of $10,000 each (the trader can hold up
to
15 positions which is the "highwater mark" of the system). then
suppose
that on average two new positions are opened (and two old positions are
closed) each week. so if the reported 8% gain is really a 4% gain on
each of two positions closed during the week then the trader made $800
but considering that it's a $150,000 account that's an overall gain of
.53% which, although seemingly small, is still a very good return
because repeated for a year will yield about $42,000 which is a gain of
about 28% on the $150,000.

so my question was, what are the parameters of the trading system? as
in
what's the average and highwater mark for number of positions held at
one
time and what's the average weekly turnover? looking back at my
earlier
post i can see why my question wasn't clear. :)



I thought I explained that in the beginning. I buy the top 6 my screens
produce. (top 3 in two screens --- currently experimenting with a third
screen in order to refine them down into one) Once I'm satisfied with
the one I will probably buy the top 10, beginning with 500 shares of
each. If the account grows, I will simply buy more shares of each so
that the commission cost per share decreases. Sometime in the future, as
this is just my play money that I set aside when I retired, I will
probably raid the account and pocket some of the gains. This is just a
past time for me. I really don't care about the money, just the game. As
for the other fellows comment about Madoff math, I don't have a clue
what that is, or who it is if it is referring to person. I'm retired and
don't pay attention to news, politics or crap like that. Makes life much
more enjoyable. And I'm damn sure not trying to sell anyone on "my"
system.


ok, i went back and looked at what you said:

"I just run a screen every Friday looking for 1 to 2 dollar stocks that
are priced below their price to cash flow ration, over 1000000 shares
trading. If you want, I'll get the complete criteria for ya. I buy
first thing Monday morning, and sell each when it has a net increase
of 5% or more and then turns down. I usually all out with gains but if
there is any still on the board, they get sold the subsequent Friday
before noon. I then run another screen for the upcoming week. I buy
the top 6 at 500 shares each."

so according to that you turn over six trades each week with no positions held longer than that. with the stock price being limited to $1-$2 the most one would need in a trading account is $12 * #shares traded (ie. to "scale it up" and use say 5,000 share trades would require, at most, $60,000 in the account). the weekly percentage gain, if calculated the way daytraders.com does it, is the sum of the gains on each trade, so for example, if they summed to 8% then the total gain would be somewhere between $2400 and $4800 depending on the price of the stocks (whether they were closer to $1 or $2 when bought). in other words, the gain on the overall account is overstated by up to 100%, but again, don't get me wrong, it's damn good money either way!

by the way, there's one other important parameter which i neglected to mention in my earlier post and that's the stop-loss point, which was the downfall of daytraders.com (for me anyway...). they claimed their system was based on 10% stop-loss but they didn't follow their own rules and while most of their positions make money, they got really hammered sometimes (as i recall they held a couple of positions that were down more than 20% for months...). regarding stop-loss, i see you said:

"On the other hand, I bail out of any stock that shows a loss of 4.5% heading for 5% with a little bump in downside volume."

my experience with stocks in the $1-$2 range is that 5% drops happen rather quickly & often so not sure how well something like this will work over the long term, but good luck and hope it continues to work well for you.





I am sitting here trying to stay up with the conversation... I typed a response but it didn't make sense.. even to me <g>

I think that the stop loss on $1-2.00 stocks could be hit on little blips alone so I guess this is why your glued to your display. Running

What about using this system in a 'targeted' sector that is in favor?

Using the index's as indicators to what side you might be on any given day you take the favored position for whatever sector you choose.

Retired hah!. Sounds tougher than working a job. hahaha

What trading platform are you using?

I don't do indexes and indicators. I just run the screens on Friday after the close, buy Monday morning before 9AM and ride with that. I don't short, use options, trade futures, hedge, I just buy those stocks and that come up on the screen. Like I said, to me it's just a game and the way I do it just makes it fun. I use Scottrade.

I use Scottrade too.. you use the new Elite or the old Java one. ( i am old school Java myself) I tried to figure out the Eilte and just went back to the old one.. Been there since 2000

What do you use to do your screenings?

I use the Java. The screener is MSN Money Custom Screener. You have to use their little software but it's free and immediate download.


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Weekly (or should I say weakly) picks
    ... trading account each week but from what ... so if the reported 8% gain is really a 4% ... (top 3 in two screens --- currently experimenting with a ... the one I will probably buy the top 10, beginning with 500 shares ...
    (misc.invest.stocks)
  • Re: Weekly (or should I say weakly) picks
    ... trading account each week but from what i've seen ... weekly gain is not on the entire trading account value but on a portion ... the weekly percentage gain, if calculated the way daytraders.com does it, is the sum of the gains on each trade, so for example, if they summed to 8% then the total gain would be somewhere between $2400 and $4800 depending on the price of the stocks. ...
    (misc.invest.stocks)
  • Re: Weekly (or should I say weakly) picks
    ... trading account each week but from what i've seen ... weekly gain is not on the entire trading account value but on a portion ... I buy the top 6 my screens ...
    (misc.invest.stocks)
  • Re: Weekly (or should I say weakly) picks
    ... trading account each week but from what i've seen ... weekly gain is not on the entire trading account value but on a portion ... between $2400 and $4800 depending on the price of the stocks (whether ...
    (misc.invest.stocks)
  • Re: Weekly (or should I say weakly) picks
    ... trading account each week but from what i've seen ... weekly gain is not on the entire trading account value but on a portion ... positions with an average size of $10,000 each (the trader can hold up to ... I buy the top 6 my screens produce. ...
    (misc.invest.stocks)