Re: 17 Days Left Till There Is No More Market
- From: "Steven L." <sdlitvin@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 21 Nov 2008 19:30:01 -0500
There will always be a market.
In the huge market decline of 1929-1933 that signaled the beginning of
the Great Depression, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by an
amazing 90%. In today's terms, that would be equivalent to the Dow
going from 14,000 last year down to only 1400 (!!!) by 2011.
Yet the stock market continued to trade, every day, right through the
1930s, same as always.
I hope you're right. But if this particular recession/depression has taught
us anything, it's that history is not always a guide. That market declined
by 90%. What's to stop this one from declining 100%?
A 100% decline would imply there are no more solvent companies in America that are issuing stock anymore. The only scenario I can imagine that would cause something like that would be a meteorite wiping out the North American continent. (Even in a nuclear war, the major stock exchanges would relocate out of New York and set up shop elsewhere in the country.)
I'm just a realist losing big money hand over fist every day it seems, but
I'm not a prophet of doom. However, we're on a train ride to hell in the
next few weeks with apparently nothing on the horizon to stop it.
What the market is looking for, is some sign that the Government is on the case. Right now, we're in an interregnum between a lame-duck President with no more power left (Bush), and a President-elect who, so far, doesn't want to seize the reins of power prematurely (Obama). So America drifts, leaderless, and the stock market doesn't like it.
On the news, they said that Obama is going to name the financial members of his Cabinet next week, in time for Thanksgiving. Looks like Geithner for Treasury Secretary, Richardson for Commerce Secretary. Those are two experienced, competent professionals; neither is an ideologue. That should bring back some confidence and stability to the markets.
For the rest, we'll have to wait for the new Administration and the new Congress in January.
I would certainly welcome your opinion as to what is going to stop this
panic-stricken, out-of-control market from going down 100% shortly. "There
will always be a market" may not count this time. What's going to keep it
Effective national leadership.
And right now, America might as well have no President at all, the way things are slip-sliding away.
Hang in there and wait for Obama to be inaugurated in two months. Even LIBERAL but consistent and predictable economic policies would be preferable to NO policies, which is what we're stuck with right now.
Remove the NOSPAM before replying to me.
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