Re: DON TIBERONE- YOU SHOULD HAVE LISTENED TO ME


OK, I'll do this one more time, but I guess we've got a "true believer"
here, just like the dot-commers from a few years back...the psychologists
call this "cognitive dissonance", and also as somebody here once stated,
you can't argue with a belief system...

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:edg84f$oiq@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Bill Reid <hormelfree@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:IKJKg.42566$5i3.36767@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

In other words, there'd still be demand. Supply/demand will determine
the
price.

Well, duh, except price can't fall below the cost of production for long
without destroying the industry through bankruptcy...

It can, according to your silly arguments.

No, I've stated the above several times. Please don't sully my
unequivocal statements with your false interpretations of my "silly
arguments", because it's fundamentally dishonest, as is just about
everything you've said...

What always defeats simple minds about supply/demand is that
they are both "elastic", and therefore moving targets in and of
themselves...

Actually, so far, it has been pretty inelastic considering demand
continues
to rise right along with the price.

Once again, your time frame is short, and your understanding and
respect for economics is sub-elementary...I won't even bother to discuss
such an idiotic statement (why the hell do I post to Usenet in the first
place, you may ask?).

...but you keep talking about "demand continues to rise" as if you
had some type of instantaneous calcular function of demand. You
don't; you just know that demand rose a few months ago, and
then "simply" extrapolate demand will continue to rise at the same
rate forever no matter what.

Why don't you ask the EIA. They are the ones predicting demand to continue
to rise.

Ah, so it's actually a "prediction". Why didn't you say so in the first
place. I like predictions, because they generally have about at least
a 50/50 shot at being right, so when I hear them I feel like I'm in
Vegas, drunk and rolling the bones...

BTW, the SPR is already almost full. At least the one in the US. But
apparently you believe we have unlimited storage capacity.

My reference to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve was a joke.
Sometimes MY "facts" are jokes...

Sure, when proven wrong, pretend you were joking.

Hey, it's worked before...

Like I said, ignoring the facts. Natural gas was just an example.

An "example" about another topic is not a "fact". If you have any
"facts"
about OPEC, I've asked you to post them. Did you post them?

Oil production has always been far greater than supply.

BUT WHO HAS BEEN BUYING ALL THAT OVER-SUPPLY??!!???!!!
WHAAAAAA??!!!?!?!!

Just because production was higher, doesn't mean they were pumping all
out.

At the risk of repeating myself: WHAAAAAA??!!!?!?!!

Repeat it again.

WHAAAAAAAAA????!???!?!!!!??!!!???

Are you deaf as well as dumb?

And the SPRs don't have unlimited space but apparently you believe
they
do.

At the current time it has a particular limit. Before it was
established
it
was zero. It actually could be bigger in the future. But in any event,
be
aware that I consider the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to be a "joke",
but not everybody gets my sense of humor...

Well, most of your argument are a joke so....

Well, as long as I can leave them laughing, I've accomplished something...

The world
had
many millions of barrels of spare capacity. Both demand and
production
have
been going up.

What's your point?

Supply/demand, which apparently is well beyond your comprehension.

Well, I deal with it on daily basis, so I like to think I understand it.
Are you trying to "re-educate" me on the topic?

Actually, I did re-educate you on this. Afterall, you are backpedaling,
especially after I proved your silly arguments about lower demand leading
to
higher production.

Actually, this whole thing started when I corrected you specifically
on the well-known historical fact that some OPEC countries always
have cheated on their OPEC quotas. Just about everything else is
just your dishonest re-phrasing of my simple and FACTUAL correction
of your original mistake.

A "bigger man", certainly a better one, would have just admitted
they made a mistake and moved on, but as usual, forget it Jake, this
is Usenet-town...


http://www.imf.org/Pubs/FT/weo/2006/01/chp1pdf/fig1_21.pdf#search=%22spare%2
0capacity%20oil%20demand%20production%22

Oooooh, this one was good. See "OPEC Target and OPEC,
Non-OPEC Production". Proves EXACTLY what I've been saying:
that up until about the last couple years, OPEC almost always pumped
MORE oil than their "target", and the discrepancy was the GREATEST
during the US recession that knocked oil prices down as shown
in "Figure 20. Crude Oil Refiner Acquisition Cost" in the link below.

Yup, dems da fax. The TRUE facts...let's see how you play this (oh
wait, I forgot, Jake...).

Oh please. Oil demand ROSE during the recession!

The original point wasn't about demand. It was about the FACT
of OPEC "cheating", WHICH EVERY FRIGGIN' PERSON ON
THE PLANET KNOWS ABOUT, EXCEPT APPARENTLY
YOU.

Six-year-old girls know OPEC "cheats" on their quotas. You
supply a link that provides a matter-of-fact graphical display of
OPEC cheating, "OPEC Target and OPEC, Non-OPEC Production",
and YOU STILL ARE ARGUING ABOUT IT.

WHAT THE HELL IS THE MATTER WITH YOU???!!!??!!!???

Oh, wait, apologies again to Jake, I forgot...

BTW, the first chart goes back over 20 years. The only time demand
dropped,
was during the early 80's. Check out the charts from the other link and
guess what? Both world and OPEC production dropped right along with demand
during that time!

So what? Your original statement was:

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

Problem is, in http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/ep/ep_frame.html,
in "Figure 61. World Crude Oil Production", we can clearly that
OPEC continued to RAISE production as PRICES FELL throughout
the '90s, and in what must be even more disconcerting to you with
your strongly held "belief system", they actually CUT PRODUCTION
IN THE LATE '70s AND EARLY '80s AS THE PRICE WENT
UP TO RECORD LEVELS.

Again, dems da fax, your linx, sorry if "you can't handle the truth"...

Game, set, match.

Thanx for conceding defeat. It almost never happens on Usenet,
because it's filled with argumentative idiot losers with low self-esteem
who spend the entire empty lives trying to defend a single misstatement,
but YOU'RE a different breed of cat...

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/ep/ep_frame.html

This is also quite good, particularly for the longer time frames,
....
we can quickly note...that that OPEC was
pumping at a pretty good rate (if not "all out" WHAAAAAA??!!!?!?!!),
while oil prices FELL to a DISASTEROUS LOW (for OPEC) of
$12.52 A FRIGGIN' BARREL IN FRIGGIN' 1998 (Figure 20),
or a INFLATION-ADJUSTED DECLINE of about 75 FRIGGIN'
PERCENT from the peak in 1981, 17 FRIGGIN' YEARS EARLIER!!!

Did you notice demand continued to rise during that time?! So of course
they
would increase production to meet that demand.

Ah yes, changing your original statement entirely. Let's remind the class
AGAIN of just what you said:

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

So you're actual "belief system" is: OPEC WILL defend the price by
cutting production, UNLESS THERE IS INCREASED DEMAND.

Brilliant! Why didn't I realize this is what you really meant when I
responded to your original statement:

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed4544$cls@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Bill Reid <hormelfree@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:j5aJg.8049$5i3.1006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

Nah, they've SAID they were going to do it in the past, and then
most of them CHEATED on the quotas.

---end of archived excerpt

So, they weren't CHEATING, they actually RAISED PRODUCTION
TO MEET INCREASED DEMAND DESPITE FALLING PRICES
AS A "GIFT" TO THE OIL CONSUMERS!!!

THANK YOU OPEC!!!

Gee, dude, according to your brain-dead analysis of oil industry
economics, OPEC should have pretty much shut themselves down
for most of the '90s...but of course, the "facts" are quite different,
THEY KEPT INCREASING PRODUCTION DESPITE THE
DIZZYING PRICE DECLINE.

Uh huh. Clearly, the charts show they were increasing production to meet
higher demand.

Again, THANK YOU OPEC, and GOD BLESS!!!

And THANK YOU, and GOD BLESS you, "Don Tiberone", for
setting us all straight on OPEC oil pricing/production strategies and
oil industry economics!!! I know I speak for the entire "class" when
I say I feel totally "RE-EDUCATED"!!!!!!

When demand dropped in the early 80's, production dropped
right along with it. Those are the FACTS.

While the price was RISING! Maybe I should take back those
THANKS to OPEC, since the bastards were clearly trying to make
the price rise even higher, and clearly they COULD CUT PRODUCTION
AND MAINTAIN A STEADY REVENUE STREAM (which I've
stressed repeatedly), and I really should take back my THANKS
to you, "Don Tiberone", because THAT'S EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE
EFFECT OF WHAT YOU'VE BEEN ARGUING LIKE A RETARD
FOR ABOUT 100KB OF USELESS DRIVEL!!!!

Dude, seriously, do yourself a favor, stop arguing with me, and start
thinking about what I'm saying. Look at your own "facts", the links
you supplied, and stop trying to win a "flame war", but rather THINK
about what actually happened in the last thirty years in the oil
industry.

Your future wealth may very well thank you for your effort. I'm not
saying ABANDON OIL RIGHT NOW!!! but for cryin' out loud
LEARN FROM HISTORY, KEEP AWARE AND ALERT, AND
MADE THE BEST DECISIONS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE REAL
"FACTS".

LOL. I've already won this argument considering you were already
retracting
your statements not to mention my links clearly show that lower demand
leads
to lower production.

No, you changed your argument like the typical stupid angry little
Usenet punk that you are. Your argument was about PRICE, not
DEMAND, and here it is again just in case all your snipping has
made anybody forget:

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

People continue
to waste energy on a daily basis.

Yup. Read your own links to guage the historical effect of conservation
and increased efficiency ALONE in collapsing oil prices. Here's the
relevant link again, DON'T SNIP IT, IT'S YOURS:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/ep/ep_frame.html

Note particularly Figures 2 and 3. Figure 2 shows that energy
consumption PER PERSON is STILL below what it was 30 FRIGGIN'
YEARS AGO WITH THE STATED REASON OF THE OIL
"SHOCKS" of the '70s.

Yet another reason why it's not affecting demand. Thanks for proving me
right.

God, you're a moron...sorry, Jake, I forgot again...

If you are an energy "investor", if there is a REAL "shock" in the
next few years, STRONGLY CONSIDER TAKING YOUR
PROFITS, based on history. DON'T BE STUPID, YOU MORON!!!

Duh. Obviously. When did I say I wouldn't take profits?

I don't think you said it, but you seem like such a friggin' idiot, I
just assumed you'll get steamrollered by any "unexpected events".
I mean, for cryin' out loud, you don't know the first friggin' thing
about the oil industry, or any industry for that matter, and are
impervious to any sort of fact or logic.

Historically, guys like you wind up giant losers...

Sure, there are
*some* people, mainly poorer folks affected but mostly demand
continues
to
rise.

Rilly rilly dum.

Look dude, I told you every other car on the road around here is
now a Prius(TM). I live in what has been determined to be the most
expensive place in the country to live in, and literally almost EVERY
SINGLE PERSON I KNOW IS A FRIGGIN' MULT-MILLIONAIRE.
THE FRIGGIN' JANITORS HERE ARE MILLIONAIRES.

THEY CAN AFFORD GAS AT $50/GALLON, BUT THE NEW
"STATUS SYMBOL" ARE THOSE GOOFY-LOOKING TOYOTAS.

Just trying to supply a little "fact" of which you seem to be unaware.
In your neck of the woods, guys are probably still driving '68 El
Caminos that would only get 12 miles per gallon, except they're
actually sitting up on blocks in the front yard...

Rant all you want.

Yup. It's gonna be like that scene in "A Fish Called Wanda" where
Otto (the REALLY STUPID guy) gets stuck in the mud and gets run
over by the steamroller...

Demand continues to increase. FACT. The EIA predicts
demand will continue to rise. If you have a problem with that, go talk to
the EIA.

What's their Social Security number?

Again, you're talking about fantasy technologies. Read the above
about existing technologies again, or as I've suggested, get
somebody
to read it to you. THE ALTERNATIVES HAVE BEEN HERE ALL
ALONG.

If we don't use them at 70 dollars oil, when will we use them?

$150-$200/barrel, or thereabouts. But ur rilly jes 2 dum, itz
empozzabul
2 git threw ur tick skul.

By the way, this number was another "joke", just in case you didn't "get
it"...

So says the guy who already backtracked. Not once but twice.

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

This is your quote.

"If the price of oil drops, particularly if it
drops substantially, they'll start pumping like crazy in a desperate
attempt to maintain a steady revenue stream, all the while jawboning
about "quotas", and price will go down even faster."

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

"they'll start pumping like crazy"

"The price "will" go down even faster. That's FUTURE not PAST tense.

Yup. Occasionally ur jes smurt enuff 2 qut pruperly. Sumtims nut.

Yep. I guess you couldn't lie your way out of this one, eh? Which other
statement will you claim you never made?

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

Only in those sporadic instances when you're correct...

You spent more time agreeing with me. Like when you ranted
multiple
paragraphs about alternatives.

Why do you call MY facts "rants"? And your "examples" are "facts"?

Because I've given you facts.

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

And now I've thanked you for them. Thank you for proving yourself
wrong. It takes a big man to do that; oh wait, that's ADMITTING you're
wrong, just stupidly supplying links that you apparently don't
understand
implies a different kind of person...

You've already admitted you were wrong when you started backpedaling and I
quote:

"And I never said the OPEC would IN THE FUTURE raise production if prices
dropped."

Sure you didn't. Just lie and change your position when proven wrong.

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

And then proceed to claim oil prices were higher in the past and then
claim
you never said it. Either that or claim you were joking. What other
excuses
are you going to use?

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

See above about oil historically dropping from almost 60 "real" dollars
to $12. It was in your own link. That would be like oil dropping from
where it is today to about $17 in about a year.

Oh please. Go to the "real" dollars card when proven wrong.

Watch out, next time you prove me "wrong", I'm going to play
the "race card"...

BTW, the "real"
dollars cost of extracting that oil drops right along with it.

GOD ARE YOU DUM!!!!! I mean, really, I can just feel
your IQ getting smaller as we go along...have you been diagnosed
yet?

Don't think it can happen? Well, I still remember all the scare stories
about natural gas this time last year, it was on an "inevitable rise to
$30", blah, blah, blah. WHAAAAAAA???!!!??!! HAPPENED???!!??!!

Warm winter.

Oh, sure, blame Mother Nature, you disingenuous ***...

If your "example fact" is natural gas, be afraid, BE VERY AFRAID,
if you are an oil "investor"...

I'll be afraid if the housing bubble wrecks the economy leading to less
demand.

All kinds of things to worry about...BUT YOU"RE NOT WORRIED
AT ALL!!!!

Why would I be afraid? I'm the one giving better arguments about us using
zero oil. You're only babbling about using 50% less oil.

No, I specifically said we could switch over entirely to bio-diesel for
the very small amount of oil needed if we completely utilized all CURRENT
technologies, you were yammering about FANTASY technologies. Man,
is your reading comprehension bad...

THOSE ARE "FACTS", YOU ***!!!!!!!!

And backtracking from them too. LOL.

I can't hide from them anymore, now that you proved them correct
historically with your links. Thank you for exposing me as the genius
that I am...

LOL. Thanks for backpedaling and proving me right.

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

The links clearly proved
me right and you changed your arguments multiple times because of it. What
statement will you change next?

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt

---
William Ernest Reid
Post count: 433

Postscript:

Don Tiberone <DonTiberoneNOSPAM@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:ed2upe$qbn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

What you oil bears don't understand, is that if
oil drops, OPEC WILL defend the price by cutting production. They've
done
it
time and time again in the past and they will do it again.

---end of archived excerpt



.