Re: Tim Horton


For those who absolutely have to own it; Tim Horton's will IPO Friday.

My advice: avoid buying in to the hype unless you can flip it fast.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060322.wtimmy0322/BNStory/Business/home

Tim's stock in short supply
ANDY HOFFMAN AND OMAR EL AKKAD

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

It may be unnecessary hype for the most hyped Canadian IPO in years.

In the early hours of Friday morning, a massive trailer bearing the Tim
Hortons logo will park in front of the Toronto Stock Exchange. Inside the
mobile restaurant, they'll be brewing coffee and baking doughnuts to feed
the hundreds of franchisees and other guests invited to the largest listing
ceremony in the exchange's history.

Brokers across the country don't need reminding that Tim's is going public.

They've been fielding calls for weeks now, months in some cases, from
clients and non-clients alike looking for a taste.

"I've asked for about a quarter of a million shares, and if I get 5,000, I'm
going to have a party," said Gerald Freedman, an RBC Dominion Securities
Inc. investment adviser in Medicine Hat, Alta.

Even though RBC is the lead Canadian investment dealer on the initial public
offering, Mr. Freedman, a 25-year industry veteran, isn't expecting much
stock for his clients. Whatever Tims stock he does get will be divvied up
among 10 lucky clients drawn from a hat containing about 100 names.

Mr. Freedman, who manages about $450-million in client funds with his
partner, said the IPO is drumming up new business he won't be able to take.

"I even had a guy e-mail Wednesday I don't even know. He said my name is
so-and-so and I used to live in Medicine Hat and I'd like all the Tim
Hortons you get."

In other parts of the country, the meagre supply of Tims stock has become a
curse for some brokers.

"It's really been more of a pain than anything," said one adviser who asked
not to be named. "Our best clients who normally we would look after on this,
we have to tell them, 'We're the lead but we've got no stock.'"

For clients who can afford to buy $50,000 or $100,000 worth of stock, the
adviser said, it's almost offensive to offer them $1,000 or $2,000 worth of
Tims. "It's like offering to buy you lunch and limiting it to a bread
stick," he said.

Even Ron Joyce, who sold the chain to Wendy's International Inc. back in
1994 and co-founded the franchise with hockey star Tim Horton, is hearing
from people who want stock. "I've been getting calls from all over. I'm no
different from anyone else," said Mr. Joyce, who added that he hasn't been
able to help those looking for stock. "I'm just a citizen."

Mr. Joyce said his own broker expects to get just 1,500 shares for his
high-net-worth clients. "I think it'll come out fully valued. I don't know
what the price is going to be, but there seems to be a lot of hype on it,"
he said Wednesday. "If it comes out way over its listing price, there may
not be a lot of upside."

Jim Dennis, an investment executive at Scotia Capital Inc., said he received
questions about the IPO from retail investors up until Wednesday morning.
Since the beginning of this week, he's gotten about 10 calls, which is
unusual given that investment advisers tend to be the ones calling clients,
not the other way around, he added.

The intense media coverage surrounding the IPO has only added to investor
interest, Mr. Dennis said. However, Scotia Capital, one of the firms
involved in the IPO this side of the border, isn't even sure how much of the
offering it will get. As such, Mr. Dennis has had to repeatedly explain to
clients that getting in on the ground floor simply may not be an option.

"It seems people want what they can't obtain," he said. "But at some point,
you have to tell them, 'Well, how many ways can you divide zero?'"

But so far, Mr. Dennis has fielded calls from investors he otherwise almost
never hears from. Since Tim Hortons' raised the price range on the offering
this week, demand has eased somewhat, he said, but not nearly enough.
"[Raising the price range] puts some cooling water on the flames," Mr.
Dennis said. "But will it extinguish it? I don't think so."

That sentiment is common among investment advisers across the country.
"Whenever it's good, you can't get enough of it," said Ron Beer, an RBC
adviser in St. John's. "I just think it's brand recognition. Most people
have probably had a coffee or two from there, right?"


.

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