Re: Becuase some ( we all now who] People do not understand the numbers or what a risk assessment is

On Wed, 21 Oct 2009 09:47:46 -0700 (PDT), in misc.health.alternative,
"trigonometry1972@xxxxxxxxx |" <trigonometry1972@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Oct 20, 2:45 pm, Bob Officer <boboffic...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
This web site reduces the number to a simple graph and puts all the
numbers into a relationship that even the biggest anti vax deny can
not avoid.

The truth is very beautiful when laid out properly.

http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/2009/how-safe-is-the-hpv-vaccine/

The Graphic are plain and easy to see.

20,400,000 Doses of Gardasil in the US
    10,326 (0.1%   )People reported with side effects.
       722 (0.007% )People reported with serious side effects.
        20 (0.0001%)People reported dying within 1yr of vaccination*
                [that 1:2,040,000 people reported dying
                received the vaccine dying from any cause within a
                year.]

Some common Theoretical Odds of Dying (one year risk and lifetime
risk) and source

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AmCeWwNKr6FmdDVWSW5OUEhZTHpie...

Dying in a car crash    1:20331         1:261http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Fireworks accident      1:74,126,765    1:952,786http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Ignition Of Nightwear   1:49,417,844    1:635,191http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Snake bite              1:42,358,152    1:544,449http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Flood                   1:24,708,922    1:317,595http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
HPV vaccine (theoretical)1:15,202,986   1:144,749http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Dying in railway crash  1:8,985,062     1:115,489http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Dog bite                1:8,985,062     1:115,489http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Earthquake              1:8,013,704     1:103,004http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Struck by lightning     1:6,177,230     1:79,399http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Bus accident            1:5,025,543     1:64,596http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Bee or wasp sting       1:3,615,940     1:46,477http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Drowning in the bath    1:861,939       1:11,079http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Alcohol overdose        1:856,957       1:11,015http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Drowning /boat accident 1:752,556       1:9,673http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Dying in a plane crash  1:502,554       1:6,460http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Swimming Pool Accident  1:488,480       1:6,279http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Killed on a bicycle     1:319,857       1:4,111http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
House fire              1:113,300       1:1,456http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Cervical Cancer         1:82,178        1:1,056http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd-vac/hpv/hpv-vacsafe-effic.htm
Motorcycle accident     1:67,588        1:869http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Killed as a pedestrian  1:48,816        1:627http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Illegal drug overdose   1:26,833        1:345http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Accidental suffocation
and strangulation in bed, 1:517,464     1:6,651http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Inhalation
of gastric contents     1:890,412       1:11,445http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Firearms discharge,     1:375,801       1:4,830http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
Dying Cervical Cancer   1:40,297        1:518http://www.nccc-online.org/
Contracting HPV
Related Cervical Cancer 1:28,207        1:363http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/fact***/Risk/HPV(authors
calculations)
Contracting
Cervical Cancer         1:13,554        1:174http://www.cancer.gov/cancertopics/fact***/Risk/HPV(authors
calculations)
Contracting HPV
(any type, not just
cancer-causing types)   1:1,167         1:15http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd-vac/hpv/hpv-vacsafe-effic.htm

The Web site:http://www.nsc.org/research/odds.aspx
is interesting.

However the graphical display of this data is impressive.

Makes the anti-vaxs appear to be idiots, doesn't it?

--
Bob Officer
Posting the truthhttp://www.skeptics.com.au

Good job, Officer. Though you may rate as an
anti-vaxer and I hold some views that they would

Not hardly. The math happens to fully support vaccines and their use
on a large scale.

approve of. I am aware vaccines are often quite
effective.

Like for tetanus? as in DPT?

Are you sure the HPV is goig to work for a lifetime?

Somethings need boosters.
I get a booster for tetanus every 5 years.
Even with it the risk is much lower, and not getting it.


Will the chance of adverse effect remain the
same with each repeated shot if health authorities
say more are needed?

Good question and I am sure if you addressed the experts that might
have a answer for the question. As in any widely use vaccine, some
answers are not available that soon.

Will other HPV strains
fill the void and gain a wider infection rate?

That's another god question. Are the Other stains connected with
Cervical Cancers?

That concern isn't too likely provided people don't
change behaviors by having more sex and continue
to use protection. And are you sure the authorities
are picking up all the possible harm from the
HPV shot in those numbers?

Pretty much so.

What if the vaccine effectiveness is only for a
decade? Will the gals who go virus positive
still get the cancer? Or will they less apt
to clear the virus and have higher cancer rates?
Perhaps the male should be vaccinated
as well?

Yep. Some suggestions have been made in that direction. What is good
for the goose is good for the gander.

If we are going to go for more
just a bit of suppression that would make
sense. Perhaps we need to vaccinate
for the other strains of HPV? There is
another HPV vaccine in development as I
recall.




The odds seem good but there are unknowns
.............................................................Trig





--
Bob Officer
Posting the truth
http://www.skeptics.com.au
.

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