Re: Opinions on Echinacea


PeterB wrote:
> David Wright wrote:
> > In article <1124375206.595195.116450@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > PeterB <pkm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > >
> > >David Wright wrote:
> > >> In article <1123853914.560881.10690@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > >> PeterB <pkm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > >> >
> > >> >David Wright wrote:
> > >> >> In article <1123700043.135376.270390@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > >> >> PeterB <pkm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >cathyb wrote:
> > >> >> >>
> > >> >> >> As Petey must know, what I actually posted was:
> > >> >> >>
> > >> >> >> "People are intuitively very bad at risk assessment Jan--they waste
> > >> >> >> money on lottery tickets, where the chances of winning are millions to
> > >> >> >> one, instead of keeping money in a bank where they are guaranteed a
> > >> >> >> (small) rate of return. And they take the relatively high risk of their
> > >> >> >>
> > >> >> >> kids dying or being impaired by diseases, because they are frightened
> > >> >> >> of the much, much smaller risk of vaccine damage.
> > >> >> >
> > >> >> >What's your evidence that a "relatively high risk of kids dying or
> > >> >> >being impaired by diseases" follows not being vaccinated? And how do
> > >> >> >you know the risk of vaccine damage is "much, much smaller?" The world
> > >> >> >is waiting for you to enlighten us.
> > >> >>
> > >> >> If we work from something like VAERS data to get our risk estimates
> > >> >> for vaccines, and we use ordinary mortality/morbidity statistics for
> > >> >> diseases, are you suggesting that the case for not vaccinating is
> > >> >> stronger? Have you even bothered to check?
> > >> >>
> > >> >> Taking measles as an example, someone pointed out the other day that
> > >> >> in the US, measles mortality per year was in the hundreds; claimed MMR
> > >> >> mortality per year in VAERS is under a dozen. How's that for
> > >> >> starters?
> > >> >
> > >> >The problem is that VAERS doesn't adjust for the rate of attrition. We
> > >> >don't know how many of these deaths represent children who were
> > >> >vaccinated but contracted measles and died anyway. If both occured, it
> > >> >isn't ethical to attribute mortality to measles alone when immunization
> > >> >(sic) was concomitant.
> > >>
> > >> But with numbers of these relative magnitudes, it also doesn't matter.
> > >> Even if all half-dozen or so of the VAERS cases were actually killed
> > >> by the vaccine, or even if they all caught measles and died solely of
> > >> that, the *overall* improvement is so great that it makes no
> > >> difference.
> > >
> > >It matters, and for other important reasons. What is the evidence that
> > >declines in incidence of measles is related to vaccination and not to
> > >improvements in nutritional status? Established clinical data links
> > >contraction and severity of measels to deficiency of vitamin A, whereas
> > >vitamin A was used to dramatically lower mortality from measles prior
> > >to use of antibiotics.
> >
> > And it still is, in places like Africa, where malnutrition is
> > widespread. However, you're being deliberately obtuse, I think. The
> > drop in measles cases was enormous and rapid in the wake of
> > vaccination, and I'm talking within a few years. Are you aware of any
> > sudden, massive changes in nutrition amongst children in the USA right
> > around 1966? I'm not.
>
> Two points. A pre-vaccination trendline shows measles declining many
> year prior to introduction of MMR, probably because of improvements in
> living standards, better nutritional status, introduction of fortified
> foods, and possibly use of supplements.

Of course, improved living standards and nutrition will help. But
there's a lovely graph on this US Department of Health page showing the
fatuity of this claim; just look at the minor decline, and then that
precipitous drop:
http://www.cdc.gov/nip/diseases/measles/history.htm#HOM



> The fact that vaccination was
> concomitant with this trendline doesn't prove your horse came from the
> back of the pack to win the race. Another reason not to give
> vaccination more than partial credit for those reductions is to observe
> the HUGE spikes in measles outbreak well into the vaccination campaign.

> For example, in 1971, incidence of measles advanced 238%, with a 275%
> increase in deaths compared to 1968. In 1977, there was a 40% increase
> in incidence of measles, with a 25% spike in deaths, *year over year.*
> In 1990, measles incidence was 790% greater, and mortalities 3,100%
> greater, compared to figures a decade earlier (1981-1990.)

Look at the raw data. That eight-times-greater measles incidence in
1990 resulted in 55,000 cases. Compared to 3-4 million pa
pre-vaccination. Note that Petey is carefully not comparing the numbers
to those in the pre-vaccination era.

When the actual numbers are small, any increase produces lovely-looking
massive percentage increases. Anti-vaccination liars are very fond of
this fact.

Moreover, the US Dept. of Health says that:

"A dramatic increase in measles cases occurred between 1989 and 1991.
During those three years, 55,622 cases were reported Most of the cases
occurred in children under 5 years of age, with the number of cases
among unvaccinated Hispanic and African American populations being four
to seven times higher than among non-Hispanic whites. This also marked
the first time the number of measles cases for children under 5 years
of age exceeded those for the 5 to 19 years old group.

During this period, 123 people died from measles-related illnesses -
almost half were under 5 years old. Ninety percent of those who lost
their lives had not been vaccinated. The 64 deaths in 1990 was the
largest number that had been seen in almost 20 years."


> Consequently, I am not prepared to accept that vaccination is
> particularly effective for measles, or any other infectious disease.
>
> >
> > >Also, health studies show measles infection in vaccinated communities
> > >can occur nearly as often, in some cases more often, than in
> > >non-vaccinated populations.
> >
> > Hogwash. Cite your studies. Measles can still occur in vaccinated
> > persons, and occasionally does, but usually with reduced severity.
>
> US Health dept. data for the the years cited above, which has been in
> the published literature for years, are ample evidence that vaccination
> is not the panacea you seem to think.

Hogwash. Unless he thinks that 3-4 million cases is better than 55000.

No studies showing that "measles infection in vaccinated communities
can occur nearly as often, in some cases more often, than in
non-vaccinated populations"?


> At worst, vaccination may be the
> *REASON* for upward spikes in infectious disease. I think you are
> making the data say what you would like to believe.

Oh dear. Petey's making more ridiculous statements that he can't back
up.
I'd love to see the evidence he based that on.

Cathy


<snip>

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
    ... >>>declines in incidence of measles is related to vaccination and not to ... >> vaccination, and I'm talking within a few years. ... Measles incidence had been consistent ...
    (misc.health.alternative)
  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
    ... Measles incidence had been consistent ... deaths are not the only issue. ... >*BEFORE* vaccination, how do you give the vaccine credit for more ... >for better nutrition in the poor, ...
    (misc.health.alternative)
  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
    ... A pre-vaccination trendline shows measles declining many ... > for decades before the introduction of vaccination. ... and the death rate should be discussed separately. ... how do you give the vaccine credit for more than 10 points ...
    (misc.health.alternative)
  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
    ... Measles incidence had been consistent ... But I was always talking about incidence. ... In terms of percentages, complications from measles, including death, ... > my contention that measles vaccination reduces cases of measles. ...
    (misc.health.alternative)
  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
    ... it was late and I was looking at a composite chart designed to ... for half a century before vaccination began shows that measles ... deaths are not the only issue. ...
    (misc.health.alternative)