Re: Opinions on Echinacea


David Wright wrote:
> In article <1124375206.595195.116450@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> PeterB <pkm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >
> >David Wright wrote:
> >> In article <1123853914.560881.10690@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> >> PeterB <pkm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >> >
> >> >David Wright wrote:
> >> >> In article <1123700043.135376.270390@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> >> >> PeterB <pkm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> >> >> >
> >> >> >cathyb wrote:
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> As Petey must know, what I actually posted was:
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> "People are intuitively very bad at risk assessment Jan--they waste
> >> >> >> money on lottery tickets, where the chances of winning are millions to
> >> >> >> one, instead of keeping money in a bank where they are guaranteed a
> >> >> >> (small) rate of return. And they take the relatively high risk of their
> >> >> >>
> >> >> >> kids dying or being impaired by diseases, because they are frightened
> >> >> >> of the much, much smaller risk of vaccine damage.
> >> >> >
> >> >> >What's your evidence that a "relatively high risk of kids dying or
> >> >> >being impaired by diseases" follows not being vaccinated? And how do
> >> >> >you know the risk of vaccine damage is "much, much smaller?" The world
> >> >> >is waiting for you to enlighten us.
> >> >>
> >> >> If we work from something like VAERS data to get our risk estimates
> >> >> for vaccines, and we use ordinary mortality/morbidity statistics for
> >> >> diseases, are you suggesting that the case for not vaccinating is
> >> >> stronger? Have you even bothered to check?
> >> >>
> >> >> Taking measles as an example, someone pointed out the other day that
> >> >> in the US, measles mortality per year was in the hundreds; claimed MMR
> >> >> mortality per year in VAERS is under a dozen. How's that for
> >> >> starters?
> >> >
> >> >The problem is that VAERS doesn't adjust for the rate of attrition. We
> >> >don't know how many of these deaths represent children who were
> >> >vaccinated but contracted measles and died anyway. If both occured, it
> >> >isn't ethical to attribute mortality to measles alone when immunization
> >> >(sic) was concomitant.
> >>
> >> But with numbers of these relative magnitudes, it also doesn't matter.
> >> Even if all half-dozen or so of the VAERS cases were actually killed
> >> by the vaccine, or even if they all caught measles and died solely of
> >> that, the *overall* improvement is so great that it makes no
> >> difference.
> >
> >It matters, and for other important reasons. What is the evidence that
> >declines in incidence of measles is related to vaccination and not to
> >improvements in nutritional status? Established clinical data links
> >contraction and severity of measels to deficiency of vitamin A, whereas
> >vitamin A was used to dramatically lower mortality from measles prior
> >to use of antibiotics.
>
> And it still is, in places like Africa, where malnutrition is
> widespread. However, you're being deliberately obtuse, I think. The
> drop in measles cases was enormous and rapid in the wake of
> vaccination, and I'm talking within a few years. Are you aware of any
> sudden, massive changes in nutrition amongst children in the USA right
> around 1966? I'm not.

Two points. A pre-vaccination trendline shows measles declining many
year prior to introduction of MMR, probably because of improvements in
living standards, better nutritional status, introduction of fortified
foods, and possibly use of supplements. The fact that vaccination was
concomitant with this trendline doesn't prove your horse came from the
back of the pack to win the race. Another reason not to give
vaccination more than partial credit for those reductions is to observe
the HUGE spikes in measles outbreak well into the vaccination campaign.
For example, in 1971, incidence of measles advanced 238%, with a 275%
increase in deaths compared to 1968. In 1977, there was a 40% increase
in incidence of measles, with a 25% spike in deaths, *year over year.*
In 1990, measles incidence was 790% greater, and mortalities 3,100%
greater, compared to figures a decade earlier (1981-1990.)
Consequently, I am not prepared to accept that vaccination is
particularly effective for measles, or any other infectious disease.

>
> >Also, health studies show measles infection in vaccinated communities
> >can occur nearly as often, in some cases more often, than in
> >non-vaccinated populations.
>
> Hogwash. Cite your studies. Measles can still occur in vaccinated
> persons, and occasionally does, but usually with reduced severity.

US Health dept. data for the the years cited above, which has been in
the published literature for years, are ample evidence that vaccination
is not the panacea you seem to think. At worst, vaccination may be the
*REASON* for upward spikes in infectious disease. I think you are
making the data say what you would like to believe.

>
> >Any premise that dead virus stimulates an adequate immune response in
> >people with already diminished immunity is more about successful
> >marketing than virology or cause and effect.
>
> I figured you'd try to claim some other cause for the enormous drop in
> measles, but I also knew you wouldn't be able to come up with a
> plausible explanation. I *am* a bit disappointed in you. I'd hoped
> you were above such things.

See above.

> >> Unless you can show that measles vaccine is doing something perfectly
> >> awful to those receiving it, the efficacy and value of vaccination is
> >> a closed question, and vaccination is good.
> >
> >A glaring non-sequitur. Even if the vaccine is perfectly harmless,
> >which it isn't, that doesn't mean it's "efficacy and value" is a
> >"closed question" or that "vaccination is good." Saying "gee whiz" is
> >perfectly harmless, that doesn't mean saying "gee whiz" is beneficial
> >to my health.
>
> No, but saying "gee whiz" didn't cause measles cases to drop by four
> orders of magnitude, either.

Another non-sequitur, on top of an absence of supporting data, doesn't
make your argument more persuasive.

PeterB

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
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  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
    ... A pre-vaccination trendline shows measles declining many ... > for decades before the introduction of vaccination. ... and the death rate should be discussed separately. ... how do you give the vaccine credit for more than 10 points ...
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  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
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  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
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  • Re: Opinions on Echinacea
    ... But I was always talking about incidence. ... >> evidence for half a century before the vaccine existed. ... The decrease in measles ... Even after vaccination, in the 1989-1991 measles spike, there ...
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