Re: (OT) Global Warming - seriously.

In article <votf36-htf.ln1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Andrzej Rosa <bakters@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Dnia 2009-01-07 DZ napisa³(a):
Andrzej Rosa <bakters@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Dnia 2009-01-07 DZ napisa³(a):
[...]
BTW, I've read a very good recent Perspective article from PNAS, which
I google-bookmarked: http://www.pnas.org/content/105/38/14245.full
free copy:
www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/dai/Ramanathan-Feng-PNAS-2008.pdf

This is based on present models. If they are true, so is this paper
probably true. The question is, are present models actually correct?

If I submit a paper and claim that a genetic association is 10% likely
to be correct, the paper will be rejected. But if a respected
astronomer tells us that we'll be hit by a hooge comet next month,
then there are grounds for alarm, even if the chance that he is right
is also only 10%.

Is genetic association something scary? Because if not, we don't care
that it might happen with odds only one in ten. On the other hand, I'd
care a whole lot if I played a Russian roulette, even if the odds were
one in ten.

I mean, that actually even makes sense.

The funny thing is that most people don't consider the issue of global
warming to be "scientific" at all:

It's just because people are human. Humans have some funny ways of
using their brains when coming to a conclusion.

for example I could ask Om a bunch of questions that are totally
unrelated to global warming [*] and on the basis of that find out
exactly how Om thinks the global warming "math" plays out :-)

[*]
How many guns do you own?
Are you a registered XXXX?
Do speed cameras help to control traffic?
Do you enjoy shooting prairie dogs for fun?
etc. ;-)

And smoking. Smoking is positively correlated with dangerous disregard
for crappy science. ;-)

And then there is the correlation between cellphones and traffic
accidents. <g>

How many hours per month do you put on your cellphone?
--
Peace! Om

"Love and compassion are necessities, not luxuries. Without them humanity cannot survive." -- Dalai Lama
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: (OT) Global Warming - seriously.
    ... If I submit a paper and claim that a genetic association is 10% likely ... Because if not, we don't care ... unrelated to global warming and on the basis of that find out ... Smoking is positively correlated with dangerous disregard ...
    (misc.fitness.weights)
  • Article: Vets with traumatic stress can kick smoking habit
    ... NEW YORK - Veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder have a high rate of smoking and a poor rate of quitting, but new research shows that adding smoking-cessation therapy to their routine mental health care may help. ... The researchers randomly assigned 66 veterans to receive either integrated care or standard care, in which smokers are referred to specialized clinics for cessation therapy. ...
    (alt.support.stop-smoking)
  • Re: musing on global warming
    ... "Global Warming causes more/larger hurricanes" claim. ... was that more heating, more storms, particularly since those storms ... General's report on smoking originally published in 1964 which was ... to the report, smoking kills an estimated 440,000 Americans each year. ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Anti-Smokers here are amazing
    ... Good evening sir, ... Cause I could care less about those anti-smoking nuts that post random crap on newsgroups just to get a rise, and I don't care what those have to say who argue back either ... Smoking is legal, we like it and we're probably going to continue to do it. ...
    (alt.smokers.pipes)
  • Re: Exercise...oh no!
    ... we each have to take responsibility for ourselves! ... if your partner carries on smoking and not looking after his ... You need to take care ...
    (alt.support.stop-smoking)
Loading