Re: (OT) Global Warming - seriously.

Dnia 2009-01-07 DZ napisał(a):
Andrzej Rosa <bakters@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Dnia 2009-01-07 DZ napisał(a):
[...]
BTW, I've read a very good recent Perspective article from PNAS, which
I google-bookmarked: http://www.pnas.org/content/105/38/14245.full
free copy:
www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/dai/Ramanathan-Feng-PNAS-2008.pdf

This is based on present models. If they are true, so is this paper
probably true. The question is, are present models actually correct?

If I submit a paper and claim that a genetic association is 10% likely
to be correct, the paper will be rejected. But if a respected
astronomer tells us that we'll be hit by a hooge comet next month,
then there are grounds for alarm, even if the chance that he is right
is also only 10%.

Is genetic association something scary? Because if not, we don't care
that it might happen with odds only one in ten. On the other hand, I'd
care a whole lot if I played a Russian roulette, even if the odds were
one in ten.

I mean, that actually even makes sense.

The funny thing is that most people don't consider the issue of global
warming to be "scientific" at all:

It's just because people are human. Humans have some funny ways of
using their brains when coming to a conclusion.

for example I could ask Om a bunch of questions that are totally
unrelated to global warming [*] and on the basis of that find out
exactly how Om thinks the global warming "math" plays out :-)

[*]
How many guns do you own?
Are you a registered XXXX?
Do speed cameras help to control traffic?
Do you enjoy shooting prairie dogs for fun?
etc. ;-)

And smoking. Smoking is positively correlated with dangerous disregard
for crappy science. ;-)

--
Andrzej Rosa
.

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