Is Microsoft Ready to Lose the Browser Wars?
- From: Chance Furlong <T-Bone@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 06 Mar 2009 17:36:40 -0600
From Mac Night Owl:
http://www.macnightowl.com/
Cuss and discuss.
Is Microsoft Ready to Lose the Browser Wars?
March 5th, 2009
All right, the European Union wants Microsoft to give customers a choice
of browsers. Rather than just bundle Internet Explorer, they ought to be
able to select from among popular contenders, such as Firefox, Safari
and even Opera.
This seems a logical idea at first glance, especially if you turn back
the clock a decade or so, when Microsoft¹s Internet Explorer had over
90% of the browser market without any viable contenders in sight. In
those days, there was even a Mac version, one that Apple accepted, along
with the promise to continue to develop Office for the Mac, in exchange
for making Internet Explorer the Mac OS¹ default browser too.
How things have changed. Some years later, Safari arrived on Mac OS X
and Internet Explorer left the platform. Under Windows, Internet
Explorer¹s ³unstoppable² market dominance has steadily eroded in the
wake of the introduction of Firefox.
When Firefox first arrived, I¹m sure few believed that an application
you had to make an effort to download would gain much presence compared
to a product that was shipped preloaded with the operating system.
Of course, in those days, the tech media really believed Microsoft to be
unbeatable, before its stock price dipped to roughly fifteen dollars and
change a share. Then again, predictions are a dime a dozen, and you
shouldn¹t believe mine either. But I won¹t stop making them.
The latest reports of browser share, based on ratings from Net
Applications, indicate that Firefox has moved ahead of Internet Explorer
6 and is slowly closing in on Internet Explorer 7. Of course, Microsoft
is busy with Internet Explorer 8 now. That¹s the one that will, at long
last, provide genuine support for browser standards rather than
Microsoft standards. Or at least that¹s what they claim. The betas are
supposedly all right in that respect, but I wonder how long it¹ll take
before Internet Explorer, all versions combined, falls behind Firefox.
All right, let¹s be realistic. Internet Explorer still holds roughly two
thirds of the market. However, the numbers continue to dip steadily, all
without any encouragement from the European Union. Indeed, if they were
to prevail, Microsoft would likely suffer even further. Perhaps it
serves them right for resting on their laurels with an inferior product
for far too long.
Safari? Well, the 4.0 beta lifted Apple¹s share of the browser market to
over 10%, even though it was slightly lower otherwise.
Now I suppose some of the Windows fanboys (and girls) might want to
dispute the numbers from Net Applications, and certainly it would be
nice to have some third parties vet their methodology so we can have a
better picture of just how well they truly reflect the real world.
I know that one of our other sites, The Paracast Community Forums,
reaches people around the world using the Mac OS, Windows and even
Linux. The numbers this month list all versions of Internet Explorer as
taking 37.9% of the total among our visitors. Firefox is ahead of the
game with 43.2%. Safari holds the third position at 14.3%, with Opera
and other browsers picking up the balance.
Our numbers aren¹t out of the ballpark either. Other sites are
delivering figures that are also weighed heavily in Firefox¹s favor, and
I suspect Internet Explorer gets the lion¹s share of its usage from
people who pretty much stick with the stuff that came on their PC and
never venture beyond those constraints except, perhaps, for Microsoft
Office or perhaps some other business-oriented applications.
On the long haul, I think the falling stock price clearly indicates that
the financial community has come to realize that Microsoft is in deep
trouble. Their claims that it¹s not them but the PC market don¹t seem
credible in light of recent surveys that seem to indicate Apple¹s sales,
while flat or slightly off, are holding on quite well. You¹ll also
notice that, in the wake of this week¹s introduction of new Mac
desktops, including the long-neglected Mac mini, Apple¹s stock price has
edged slightly higher, against the trend.
Notice, also, that Intel, which is facing a substantial slowdown because
of reduced PC sales, once again honored Apple with the first crack at
its latest line of Xeon processors for use in the newest Mac Pro. That¹s
the third time in a row that¹s happened. Clearly Intel knows where its
best chance for ongoing success lies. The infamous WinTel hegemony is
clearly history, and AMD is not even in the race.
While I don¹t see it happening this year, I expect to see Firefox
achieve the number one spot in the browser wars in a couple of years at
most, at which time Internet Explorer will be in a veritable free fall.
Once the economy straightens out, don¹t be surprised to see even faster
increases in Mac sales. Right now, Apple, who dominates the higher end
of the PC marketplace, is probably meeting some sales resistance. Maybe
that¹s why they finally got around to upgrading the Mac mini. Maybe
it¹ll even get some promotion this time.
Of course, I reserve the right to be wrong. But I think my predictions
about Microsoft¹s inevitable fall from grace remain on target.
--
God made me a furry, who am I to question His authority?
.
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