Re: OT: Europe takes the lead on Iran

In article <clund-038E76.23433320012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
C Lund <clund@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> In article <znu-1F7634.13213220012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> ZnU <znu@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > In article <clund-30D740.10072520012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > C Lund <clund@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > > > I'm not sure there would be much chaos either. If nobody
> > > > > interferes, the current regime will most likely fall in a "velvet
> > > > > revolution" rather than in a bloody mess.
> > > > Even in a revolution where few or no shots are fired, you still
> > > > probably have a situation where there's no functioning government
> > > > for a while.
> > > Yes, but not for a very long while. The thing about nukes is that you
> > > can't just slip one into a pocket like a pack of gum. Stealing one
> > > takes some planning.
> > Why do you assume nobody is making such plans?
>
> How does one plan for a situation like that? You have to have
> everything in place and ready waiting for a rather narrow window of
> opportunity, and for an indefinite time - anything from tomorrow to
> twenty years from now.

The easiest way to plan for a situation like this it to just make
contact with sympathetic people already in the system. Of which I
suspect there would be many.

> > > > Neither. We knew they both had infrastructure. Hell, both built
> > > > their first reactors with Western help (the US in India, Canada in
> > > > Pakistan).
> > >
> > > Yes, we knew they had the infrastructure, but we didn't know about
> > > the nukes until they blasted one.
> >
> > India and Pakistan are rather bad cases to look at if you want to learn
> > something about detection of secret nuclear weapons programs, because
> > they weren't actually particularly secret.
>
> Maybe not. But I remember the shocked headlines when it happened
> (still can't remember which of the two was first though).

India's May 1998 test was a surprise, but India had previously conducted
a successful test 1974. So, the fact that India had the capability to
produce nuclear weapons was extremely unsurprising -- only the fact that
they had decided to start conducting tests again was surprising.

Pakistan conducted its first test later in May 1998. Once again, the
exact timing came as a surprise, but Pakistan had been openly talking
about weapons development since the '70s.

Neither India nor Pakistan provides an example of a successful nuclear
weapons program carried out undetected by the rest of the world despite
efforts to detect it. In both cases, the programs weren't particularly
secret, and the rest of the world didn't really try to do much to stop
them.

> > > The US barely managed to talk the Israelis out of responding to the
> > > scuds - and they did minimal damage. I believe they were described as
> > > "flying trash-cans". But a missile attack that takes out the Knesset,
> > > some army bases, and maybe also a synagogue or two just for the hell
> > > of it is an entirely different matter. Israelis are extremely
> > > vengeful people.
> >
> > The difference is, responding to the Iraqi attacks would have been an
> > action with few direct consequences to the Israelis. The situation
> > wasn't likely to escalate beyond a few more missile exchanges. This
> > would not be the case with Iran.
>
> I don't think the Israelis would care. A few direct hits from Iran
> would drive them berserk.

You have to understand that Israel's overriding obsession is with its
survival. Sometimes this causes Israel to be much more aggressive than
some people would like... but I think the Israelis would rightly
understand that escalating a conflict with Iran would not serve this end.

--
"Those who enter the country illegally violate the law."
-- George W. Bush in Tucson, Ariz., Nov. 28, 2005
.

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