Re: OT: Europe takes the lead on Iran

In article <clund-30D740.10072520012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
C Lund <clund@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> In article <znu-ED9D83.12412219012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> ZnU <znu@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > In article <clund-777955.14351419012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > C Lund <clund@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > I'm not sure there would be much chaos either. If nobody
> > > interferes, the current regime will most likely fall in a "velvet
> > > revolution" rather than in a bloody mess.
> > Even in a revolution where few or no shots are fired, you still
> > probably have a situation where there's no functioning government
> > for a while.
>
> Yes, but not for a very long while. The thing about nukes is that you
> can't just slip one into a pocket like a pack of gum. Stealing one
> takes some planning.

Why do you assume nobody is making such plans?

> > > Was it India or Pakistan who developed their nukes in complete
> > > secrecy and the world didn't find out until they tested one?
> > > We're already there.
> >
> > Neither. We knew they both had infrastructure. Hell, both built
> > their first reactors with Western help (the US in India, Canada in
> > Pakistan).
>
> Yes, we knew they had the infrastructure, but we didn't know about
> the nukes until they blasted one.

India and Pakistan are rather bad cases to look at if you want to learn
something about detection of secret nuclear weapons programs, because
they weren't actually particularly secret.

> > > > Well, yes, I'd assume that if Israel struck Iran's reactors, it
> > > > would also strike missile sites as part of the same attack.
> > > The ones they could find. But aren't most missiles launched from
> > > mobile pads these days? They could all be safe underground at the
> > > moment.
> > I'm sure Iran would be able to get off a few launches, but Israel
> > could probably be talked out of retaliating on any large scale. The
> > Israelis aren't stupid. They wouldn't want to escalate a conflict.
>
> The US barely managed to talk the Israelis out of responding to the
> scuds - and they did minimal damage. I believe they were described as
> "flying trash-cans". But a missile attack that takes out the Knesset,
> some army bases, and maybe also a synagogue or two just for the hell
> of it is an entirely different matter. Israelis are extremely
> vengeful people.

The difference is, responding to the Iraqi attacks would have been an
action with few direct consequences to the Israelis. The situation
wasn't likely to escalate beyond a few more missile exchanges. This
would not be the case with Iran.

--
"Those who enter the country illegally violate the law."
-- George W. Bush in Tucson, Ariz., Nov. 28, 2005
.

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