Re: OT: Europe takes the lead on Iran

In article <znu-ED9D83.12412219012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
ZnU <znu@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> In article <clund-777955.14351419012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> C Lund <clund@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > I'm not sure there would be much chaos either. If nobody interferes,
> > the current regime will most likely fall in a "velvet revolution"
> > rather than in a bloody mess.
> Even in a revolution where few or no shots are fired, you still probably
> have a situation where there's no functioning government for a while.

Yes, but not for a very long while. The thing about nukes is that you
can't just slip one into a pocket like a pack of gum. Stealing one
takes some planning.

> > Was it India or Pakistan who developed their nukes in complete secrecy
> > and the world didn't find out until they tested one? We're already
> > there.
> Neither. We knew they both had infrastructure. Hell, both built their
> first reactors with Western help (the US in India, Canada in Pakistan).

Yes, we knew they had the infrastructure, but we didn't know about the
nukes until they blasted one.

> > > Well, yes, I'd assume that if Israel struck Iran's reactors, it
> > > would also strike missile sites as part of the same attack.
> > The ones they could find. But aren't most missiles launched from
> > mobile pads these days? They could all be safe underground at the
> > moment.
> I'm sure Iran would be able to get off a few launches, but Israel could
> probably be talked out of retaliating on any large scale. The Israelis
> aren't stupid. They wouldn't want to escalate a conflict.

The US barely managed to talk the Israelis out of responding to the
scuds - and they did minimal damage. I believe they were described as
"flying trash-cans". But a missile attack that takes out the Knesset,
some army bases, and maybe also a synagogue or two just for the hell
of it is an entirely different matter. Israelis are extremely vengeful
people.

--
C Lund, www.notam02.no/~clund
.

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