Re: OT: Europe takes the lead on Iran

In article <clund-D59A1C.10320018012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
C Lund <clund@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

> In article <znu-665D70.09064717012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> ZnU <znu@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > In article <clund-53DBAC.10554917012006@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> > C Lund <clund@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> > > > > Did Iraq retaliate by firing missiles back at Israel and various US
> > > > > military bases in the Middle East back then? Iran can do that.
> > > > If Iran doesn't change course, bombing nuclear facilities, while not a
> > > > particularly good course of action, would seem to be superior to the
> > > > alternatives.
> > > I wouldn't be so sure. Iraq was a pushover because it was a weakened
> > > country run by a hated dictator. Iran has 70(?) million people who
> > > aren't that unhappy with their lives - even though they are probably a
> > > bit fed up with the clergy.
>
> > > Any attacks from Israel (or the US) is likely to spark a surge of
> > > Iranian patriotism. The US will be facing 70 million angry Iranians
> > > instead of a few thousand Al Qaeda activists.
> >
> > Mind you, I'm not saying this wouldn't get really messy. I'm just saying
> > it's probably better than letting the Iranians get nuclear weapons.
>
> I don't agree with that. There is no guarantee that Iran would share
> it's nukes with various terrorists.

Yes, I agree, they're not that stupid. However, the current Iranian
regime is fairly likely to fall within the next couple of decades. Even
if it falls to a more liberal government, pretty much anything could
happen to its nuclear weapons during the likely chaos of the
transitional period. Look at how much nuclear material is *still*
unaccounted for from the fall of the Soviet Union. And in that case,
there wasn't anyone (as far as we know) deliberately trying to get their
hands on it at the time of the fall -- there probably would be in Iran.

This is the real danger in letting potentially unstable states (and
that's nearly every state in the Middle East) acquire nuclear weapons.

> But there is no question that a violent intervention with Iran is
> very likely to start a conflagration in the ME that could very well
> spill out all over the place.

I think we pretty much have to work under the assumption that there are
going to be conflagrations in the ME in the future no matter what the US
does. This is exactly why it's a really good idea to make sure there
aren't nukes floating around.

> The world might be able to prevent Iran from getting nukes for a
> while, but they / we can't prevent them from getting nukes forever.
> If the Iranians really want this, then it's only a matter of time
> before they do. High-tech will always become low-tech with time. How
> far should one go to prevent Iran from getting nukes? How much will
> they hate the world when they do?

What you say is true in principle, but it's going to be a pretty long
time before anyone can make nuclear weapons without some fairly large
and obvious infrastructure. We don't need to prevent Iran from getting
nuclear weapons forever. We only need to prevent Iran from getting
nuclear weapons until it has something resembling a stable, modern
democratic government, at which time Iran either won't want nukes, or we
won't particularly mind if it has them.

> > > How do you think Israel will react if Tel Aviv gets hit by Chinese
> > > missiles from Iran (in retaliation for the Israeli bombing)? While
> > > they won't be carrying nukes, they'll still do a lot more damage than
> > > those stupid scuds Iraq sent over their borders.
> >
> > Yes, but my impression is, Israel would be willing to risk it, rather
> > than let the Iranians get nukes.
>
> There's doubt of that. IIRC US diplomats had their hands full
> preventing Israel from responding to Saddam's scuds. It don't think
> they'll be able to stop the Israelis from responding to Iranian
> missiles.

Well, yes, I'd assume that if Israel struck Iran's reactors, it would
also strike missile sites as part of the same attack.

> I'm glad I don't live in the ME.. ;p

--
"Those who enter the country illegally violate the law."
-- George W. Bush in Tucson, Ariz., Nov. 28, 2005
.

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