Re: Vista Myths

In article <pgs6r15oorv1obabvldpqulusjbv6u2q7q@xxxxxxx>, foo@xxxxxxx
wrote:

> On Wed, 28 Dec 2005 00:30:44 GMT, Eddie LeBaron
> <elebaron@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> >On Tue, 20 Dec 2005 10:55:06 -0800, Mr Ed Of Course wrote:
> >
> >>
> >> Martin Kess wrote:
> >>> > They've screwed this up. Badly.
> >
> >> Imagine the billions and billions Microsoft could've made each year or
> >> two with Windows upgrades and something like iLife.
> >
> >No, this is wrong. It actually doesn't make sense for Microsoft to have
> >frequent upgrades to Windows. Who would buy it? Microsoft's corporate
> >customers wouldn't buy it. They don't want to upgrade. What about
> >consumers? Won't sell much to them, either, because most consumers use
> >whatever OS comes with the PC they buy. Whether it's XP or XP 2, they
> >don't care. Most people don't buy computers for the operating system, they
> >buy it for the software that runs on it. Having frequent upgrades only
> >increases the chance that you'll break compatibility for older software,
> >nullifying the greatest strength of Windows.
> >
> >Microsoft knows about this problem and they're quite worried about it. It
> >shows that they going to be facing diminishing revenues in the future,
> >because businesses and consumers are becoming less and less willing to
> >upgrade. Except for the security problems, many Windows users are
> >perfectly satisfied with XP. They're even more satisfied with Office.
> >These programs are packed with features, many of which are rarely used.
> >How on earth can Microsoft make compelling upgrades to these products? It
> >can't, not in the long run.
>
> I'd tend to agree with this, for the most part. Oh, there are a few
> issues with XP (packaging, deployment, VPN) but those are minor
> issues; for the most part, XP works very, very well, and there's no
> great rush to change anything, either in the corporate world or the
> home world.
>
> It's becoming less and less about the OS with each subsequent release
> as differences become more and more superficial (c'mon - just *look*
> at what Apple's touted in 10.3 and 10.4! Preemptive multitasking and
> memory protection this isn't.). When that happens, MS has won.

Uh, no. When that happens, MS is in very serious trouble, because people
are going to get tired of paying lots of money for the same old generic
software over and over again. Seriously, do you really think that if
people are satisfied with Windows, and aren't going to want anything
more, ever, that they'll be happy to pay Microsoft $40 for every PC they
buy (with the hardware itself getting cheaper every year) for the rest
of eternity?

No, if the market works as you describe -- and I think most of it does
-- Windows will not be the dominant operating system in 10 years. Linux
will be.

None of this has much to do with Apple's future prospects, however, as
Apple now caters to the portion or the market that *isn't* willing to
settle for 'good enough'. This market segment is small, but unlikely to
shrink, and, of course, quite profitable, as these folks are, by
definition, willing to pay more for a premium product.

--
"Those who enter the country illegally violate the law."
-- George W. Bush in Tucson, Ariz., Nov. 28, 2005
.

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