Tracking the hand in occlusion

Hello All,
I want to use the kalman filter for the tracking of the hand in case of
occlusion. Hand can be moved freely in the environment and the occlusion
can be with the other hand or with the face. In case of occlusion, I have
to predict the hand or face from the previous motion.
For the simple case, I am drawing a rectangle on the corners of the hand
and face and want to predict the rectangle points(four points) in case of
occlusion. Is it possible to do that with Kalman filter? It is always
prediction linearly and the results are not according to what I want
because the motion can vary in any direction. I have tried that. However, I
don't know exact process noise. For me the process noise can vary about 5
pixels or so because in case of two consective frame, motion can not vary
more than 5 pixels.
The second thing is that should I go for the Extended Kalman Filter? It
works for non-linear ones. The thing which I have studied about EKF is
about the functions in the transition matrixes? Can someone help me in this
problem. If you want some more information or the problem is not clear,
please ask.
Omer


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