Re: Group topic: Kurzweil + Singularity.

Don Geddis wrote:

it's a possible explanation of the
Fermi paradox:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox
namely
the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability
of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of
evidence of contact with such civilizations.

So after reaching a certain evolutionary phase cultures disappear into some other realm not visible to us, or maybe they just (decide to) cease to exist.

I don't know about Vinge's personal opinion on the imminence of this
predicted singularity.

As for Kurzweil, he's obviously a fan of Vinge, but is far, far too
optimistic. A Vinge-style singularity may happen someday in the distant
future. But not in our lifetimes. All this short-term stuff is pure hype.

There seem to be at least two kinds of singularity approaching styles. The Kurzweil method is by gradual technological progress, the Vinge method is by almost instant transformation. I think it could be compared to Kurzweil developing faster and faster processors and computer memory and Vinge just reprogramming existing hardware on the spot so that it uses better algorithms. Of course now that we have FPGA's:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_programmable_gate_array

The distinction becomes somewhat moot. Interesting is that a Vinge style singularity can even happen in a technologically *decreasing* society because it just needs one computing element transforming itself towards a higher state so that it is capable of further improving itself indefinitely. For such a process it doesn't matter much whether its current environment is a technologically progressing society of biological organisms or whether it all happens as a random fluctuation of plasma in a star (although that would seem very unlikely).

If one accepts the possibility of a Vinge style take off, the mediocrity principle:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mediocrity_principle

leads us to consider the idea of already being in a post singularity universe, maybe even a post singularity *earth*. What do I mean by a post singularity earth? I'm not even sure what that would be but I suppose a group of Neandertals (Hey, they *had* a larger brain mass than Homo Sapiens after all) or other organisms (termites? yeasts?) could have instantly reached a higher stage collectively or individually. Seen that way, we humans are not the pinnacle of evolution but just the dumbest guys currently left in the highest class in school.

A.



.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Vernor Vinge - the Singularity
    ... Oh wow, the power of crossposting. ... ..No name is linked more tightly to the idea of the Singularity than ... "It seems plausible," Vinge ... the 16th annual Computers, Freedom & Privacy conference in Washington, ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)
  • WIR 46: The Short Stories of Vernor Vinge
    ... The Short Stories of Vernor Vinge ... significant science fiction authors of the last two decades owe Vinge ... The Singularity. ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)
  • Re: Rainbows End
    ... my gut-feeling on Rabbit is that it's Vinge taking a ... stab at a form of the Singularity he hasn't looked at before. ...
    (rec.arts.sf.written)