Re: Is a Hurricane about to hit IBM ?
- From: "Craddock, Chris" <Chris_Craddock@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 2 Oct 2005 14:42:05 -0500
> So, you might say where are you going with this ?
I was kind of hoping you'd get to the point eventually.
> Anybody remembers where JES comes from ... and by the way , for those
that
> do not read the newspapers, NASA also tried to cash in on the "NEW
> ORLEANS"
> thing by saying "They need 101 Billion dollars to build a better and
more
> reliable shuttle". They claimed that , if it was not for NASA , then
> nobody
> would have even seen the Hurricane coming because they provided the
> satellite images to the National Hurricane centre.
It's largely true that without NASA we would not have satellite imaging.
And a few of those satellites have been launched from shuttle cargo
bays, but most are launched on conventional rocket boosters. It's also
possible that someone tried to link weather forecasting with the shuttle
program. I don't think anyone in the business takes that seriously, so
it's almost irrelevant what gets publicized in the press.
> Ok.. ok... let me get to the point because the people on this list
want to
> see the point :
Yep.
> Speculation : Because the FEDS are spending like a drunken sailor.
What's
> going to happen in the next 6 to 12 months is that there is going to
be a
> major backlash when the average American starts to understand the
> tremendous deficit they are going to sit with. Then you are going to
> have a "over correction" with tremendous budget cuts.
Quite possibly.
> Meaning lots of IBM computers in Federal/State sites will be merged
> into single computer centers.
Maybe and maybe not. Doing that typically costs real money. Combining
computer centers can make sense in terms of reduced overheads, but you
still need the iron to run the business and the people (and software) to
run the iron. Then there are the requirements for disaster recovery and
sox. Those are pushing the feds in the opposite direction. More iron,
not less. What's the net effect? I don't know, but I'd bet large that
IBM wins either way.
> SO we will have a "correction/downsizing" in the mainframe world. Just
> like what happened in the "Credit Card" world in the last 6 months.
The "downsizing" is real, but it has been going on for years and it's
not limited to mainframes. IT has lost it's grip on the purse-strings.
The economy is very large and IT spending is a tiny tiny percentage of
it. I would not expect to see much overall impact on IT. Prognosticators
have predicted Armageddon for years and it has not arrived. I would be a
lot more worried about the impact on federal contractors and other
service providers.
> Conclusion :
>
> It's a sad day for those of us that made our living in the Mainframe
World
> because things are going to even get more tight.
Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "the IT world". I know plenty
of people in the business who are having trouble finding/keeping jobs
who have never even seen a mainframe. That's a fact of life in these
times.
For a really good laugh, see my friend Pat Helland singing "Bye Bye Mr
CIO Guy" here <http://channel9.msdn.com/ShowPost.aspx?PostID=11950>
CC
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