Re: Roulette


"Are you kidding" <nowhere@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:e3S3f.23700$Io.13969@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > So for the 2 problems above: If you make it to level 7, you are betting
a
> > whopping $320 in order to win back all the money you lost trying to get
> back
> > that intial $5 bet. And the other problem is that you MUST win by the
7th
> > level... after that you would be at the table maximum and could only bet
> > $500, not the $640 the system requires you to wager.
> >
> >
>
> That sounds like a decent system. Would you see 8 spins in a row of red or
> black? If not then the system would seem to work but sure understand your
> point as to how fast the bets go up when doubling each time.

If you think the system sounds good then you should definitly head over to
the Wizard of Odds and read their page on betting systems and it will better
explain the problems with this system. You can find the page at:
http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems.html

A couple of things too:

1) If you got to the 6th level (as detailed in the previous post) and bet
$160 and finally won... you DID NOT just win $160. No, you won $5 and
recouped all the money you had previously lost.

2) Most casinos have their limits (minimum bet and max payout) set so that
the Martingale system fails after 6 losses in a row. So that you won't be
able to go to the next level because your win will be above the max payout
for the table.

3) 8 in a row? In roulette that happens all the time. Each spin of the
wheel is an independant event and though you might think "by the odds, BLACK
can't come up 8 times in a row" but it does happen.
In the long term (thousands, or tens of thousands, or millions of spins)
that will hold true - that by the odds black will come up 47.4% of the time
and red will come up 47.4% of the time... BUT, you aren't there for
thousands upon thousands of spins and so you only see a small number of
events that make up the long term odds of the wheel.
If you aren't sure try sitting down and flipping a coin. Heads or tails
is true 50/50 odds of one or the other (remember with roulette with the
green numbers that RED/BLACK is only 47.4%/47.4%). If you flip the coin 10
times you'll see that it doesn't always come up heads 5 times and tails 5
times.


Expanding upon the coin flipping concept:

If you sat down and flipped a coin 100 times and it came up heads 80
times and tails 20 times... what do you think will happen on the next flip?

Is there an 80% chance it will be heads, like it was in the previous 100
flips?
Is it more likely tails will come up "because its due"?

The answer is: on the next flip of the coin there is a 50% chance it will
be heads and a 50% chance it will be tails.

The same applies to the roulette wheel: If you are using a betting system
like this and betting on BLACK, and RED just came up 8 times in a row....
what does that mean on the next spin?
a) Its going to be RED again, its always RED!
b) Its going to be BLACK, because BLACK is due to hit after 8 REDs in a
row!
c) There is a 47.368% chance it will be BLACK, 47.368% chance it will
RED, and a 5.264% chance it will be GREEN.

The Answer is "C". As an independant random event, the outcome is not
dependant upon previous outcomes.


.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Roulette
    ... In the long term (thousands, or tens of thousands, or millions of spins) ... times you'll see that it doesn't always come up heads 5 times and tails 5 ... Its going to be BLACK, because BLACK is due to hit after 8 REDs in a row! ... There is a 47.368% chance it will be BLACK, 47.368% chance it will RED, and a 5.264% chance it will be GREEN. ...
    (alt.vacation.las-vegas)
  • Re: Science of choices falls out of research
    ... are two possible outcomes, heads or tails. ... will happen but we give it a chance of 50/50. ... If I didnt feel it was true in reality then I wouldnt say it. ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: No result is likely!!!
    ... in a 20 decision game: ... The chance that "even" is the result is 1/3, the chance that more heads ... OR more tails is the result is 2/3. ...
    (rec.gambling.craps)
  • Re: What is wrong with this. (files)
    ... put the probability somewhat higher. ... statement has a 50% chance of being the problem. ... Either they will all come out heads, or they won't, so ... heads or tails. ...
    (comp.lang.c)
  • Re: Science of choices falls out of research
    ... are two possible outcomes, heads or tails. ... First you say that heads might turn up, there is a chance of heads. ...
    (talk.origins)