HD converter box strategy
- From: pj <pj4380@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 17 Feb 2008 14:38:06 -0800
From reading the spec, it appears the the 'high end' models of these boxes may have S-Video but none will have a means to change aspect ratio.
If, as discussed in the /Insignia/ thread, the U.S. is limited to 22 million coupons, these will probably run out before the 'back-to-school' buying season starts and, all should be redeemed before Thanksgiving.
Converter box owners will quickly find that any set smaller than 20" (probably more like 27") is unsuitable for display of 16:9 content with these boxes. Those old sets will quickly move to Thrift stores (ultimately for export to emerging markets with NTSC media); or, to the dump.
So, the only sets worth keeping are those larger than 27" and that have an S-Video or component input capability. Composite on those larger sets will be a disappointment.
Buyer's remorse on the entry-level converter boxes should start this coming May -- just in time to spend the tax rebate check at WalMart.
We should see a second market develop for more capable converter boxes--probably in late fall. That sounds like a good time to buy since it won't be inflated by the coupon and we'll see a better range of converter choices.
We may also see college-kid opportunities for 'recycle your old small set for five-dollars.'
The way things stand, everyone will get his or her wish.
-- Heavy HDTV sales for next fall's football season. An early start in October and steady through March 2009.
-- Politicians can pat themselves on the back for the coupons.
-- An October - March market for upscale converter boxes.
-- Plenty of e-Bay sales of converter boxes that didn't work out for people.
-- Cable and Satellite should both gain new subscriptions.
-- Many new large-screen HDTVs in people's homes.
WAG cost to the American Public --- about $155 billion (cost of the 'jumpstart' tax rebate plus the cost of the coupons plus the administrative costs.)
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