OT republican crime rates Re: Ten Monarchies Survive In Europe
- From: Guy Stair Sainty <guy@xxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 29 Oct 2005 04:06:34 -0700
In article <11m5dgl7stbdu8b@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Frank R.A.J. Maloney says...
>"Guy Stair Sainty" <guy@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
These statistics are clearly open to radically different interpretations.
The International Centre for Prison Studies at King's College, London,
in published figures June 2005 shows that of the industrialisedd world
Scandinavian countries have the lowest imprisonment rates (the highest are
in the US, followed by Belarus, Bermuda (the only Monarchy at this level)
But to show how statistics can mis-represent the reality, the Vatican
would be among the states with extraordinary high rates, because of the large
number of petty crimes committed on tourists - giving the Vatican a rate
20 times that of Italy.
US crime rates on the other hand have dramatically declined and Europe's
crime rates have risen. One factor in determining rates is how ctimes are
measured and reported. One set of figures just published shows that Great
Britain has the highest crime rate, followed by Sweden (both Monarchies),
but a closer examination of those figures shows they are distorted by
the figures for Scotland whose crime rate vastly exceeds that of England.
Again, when looking at prison populations one can look at the rate per head
of population, or the rate per crime - in the latter measure, the UK
is relatively low (at 12 people per recorded crime) and Spain high (at
48 per crime). Does this mean that the British police are less efficient,
the judges more lenient or that the Spanish punish minor crimes more
severely? Spain has a relatively low crime rate and Italy likewise (although the
latter is a car crime mecca). One of the biggest problems
with these statistics is with what criteria and how crimes are reported
by the police and justice officials. What is the correlation between reported
rates, charges brought and conviction rates - and how and in what way are
various crimes reported. For example are rapes uniformly reported as such,
or as assaults in some countries?
One can draw comparisons using other criteria - for example those countries
which have historically been predominately Protestant (irrespective of
actual church attendance) have far higher crime rates than those which have
been historically Catholic or Orthodox (with the exception of Russia,
Belarus, and the Ukraine among European countries). But the experiecne of
Rwandans would hardly suggest that living in a Catholic country would
provide security against murder.
A survey of crime rates versus imprisonment rates between 1981 and 1996
shows that crime rates have risen when rates of imprisonment fall, and
vice-versa. This rather obviously suggests that if one locks up criminals
they cannot commit crimes.
The statistics on Finland - and as I recall were murder rates per thousand,
not overall crime (my apologies to Finns) - were published in the last
3 -4 weeks but I have completely failed to find the relevant publication.
I only noticed it because it seemed so unlikely, and the comparison was
with Scotland, which had the highest actual murder rate in Europe - but then
Scottish statistics are not usually given separately but usually moderated
by the rest of the UK. Rates or reporting and confidence in the police are also
factors, as well as what level of crime is eligible for inclusion in the
statistics produced by governments (aside from their manipulation by governments
anxious to give a different spin to what may, or may not be, the
According to Interpol the highest murder rate in the 1990s is Colombia (at 63
per 100,000); but also according to Interpol 20 years earlier the highest rate
was Lesotho (a monarchy) with 141 which no longer appears in the top ten. In
fact of those countries which appeared in the top ten in the 1970s, only Jamaica
appears there today in the Interpol list. But the problem with these statistics
is that they can be completely contradicted by other
reputable agencies - on the other hand another set of statistics shows that
Brazil has the highest rate of murder (that with guns alone would make it 3rd on
the Interpol list, but it does not even appear there). The World Health
Organization statistics show yet a different set of figure - Brazil and Russia
both figure there and Colombia is given as the highest, but El Salvador and
Puerto Rico also appear on the WHO list without being mentioned by interpol.
Again it matters where in a country one lives - I lived in Manhattan for 23
years and when I first arrived everyone knew someone or had themselves been a
victim of some minor crime. In the last 10 years I lived there I do not believe
encountering anyone who had been a crime victim. Indeed, I had a country house
in up state New York, never locked my front door and routinely left my keys in
my car. Such foolishness in the South East of England today
would lead to expressions of incredulity if one then complained of being
robbed. If you live in Louisiana one would have vastly different experience of
crime than if one lived in Maine.
To return to Finland, one recent set of statistics shows Finland 19th in the
world for total reported crimes at 530,000 (below Ukraine at 553,000 and
above Denmark at 504,000) - a rate of 1 crime for every ten people in Finland, 1
per every 10.7 people in Denmark and 1 for 85 Ukranians. But these same
statistics show Venezuela, a much larger country which appears in the WHO and
Interpol lists in a high position, as only having 236,000 crimes reported, which
makes just 1 for every 10 people. The same statistics applied in the US show a
crime rate of 1 crime for every 11 people. Finland appears 48th in the list of
total murders reported, but this means 1 murder for 35,000 people;
the US statistics are 1 for every 22,750 people, and in the UK 1 murder for
every 68,235 people. By this measure Finland is almost twice as dangerous.
This is all very OT, but my point is that statistics can mean a lot or a little.
I am sure Finland is a nice place to live if one does not mind the
short days and mosquitoes, lack of a decent art museum and impossible
While crime rates may be eitrely unrelated to whether a country has a monarchy
or a republic, it is possible to demonstrate that one is safer living in
a monarchy. But then there are lies, damned lies and statistics.
Guy Stair Sainty
- Prev by Date: Re: Lobkowitz (princely family, Bohemia - elevations of rank [Standeserhebungen], 1624-1918)
- Next by Date: Re: Ten Monarchies Survive In Europe
- Previous by thread: Re: Ten Monarchies Survive In Europe
- Next by thread: Re: Ten Monarchies Survive In Europe