Re: Happy New Year!
- From: Kevin Goebel <kevin_at@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2012 18:05:08 -0600
On Tue, 17 Jan 2012 09:39:02 -0500, Shmuel (Seymour J.) Metz
In <6m9ah7h62i9d2p8qn43cbiaohh511m1h9s@xxxxxxx>, on 01/17/2012
at 02:38 AM, Kevin Goebel <kevin_at@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> said:
Here in Wisconsin.US, our concealed carry law went into effect on
November 1st, 2011. Two months later and about 65,000 permit
applications have been filed, approximately 1% of our state's
population. Even if that doubles, and everyone with a permit carrys
100% of the time they are out, I would need a crowd of much more than
50 people old enough to have a permit to expect one person in that
crowd to be carrying a concealed firearm,
No. Go back to Probability 101.
I've never been there to begin with. I qualified the crowd age to limit it
to people old enough to obtain licenses. I did some Googling last night but
I couldn't find any stats on the percentage of Wisconsin residents that are
convicted felons - which would make them ineligible. I didn't bother trying
to get the number of currently incarcerated, nor the number of residents
disqualified by courts as mentally unstable.
I have no idea how to estimate the number of residents who are mentally
infirm and don't comprehend concealed carry permits, or who deem themselves
physically unfit to carry and possibly use a firearm. My own father had a
gun collection and was fit enough both physically and mentally at the age of
89 to have carried concealed, had the law been in effect before he passed
Figuring a 2% carry rate would be 2 in 100 and 1 in a crowd of 50, my "much
more" was to allow for people who didn't have a permit, either by law or
medical condition. After reviewing my post, I see I should have preceded
"carrying" with "legally". I wasn't counting my own permit and firearm as
part of the crowd. Is that where you believe my crude math was incorrect?
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