Re: Old Hardware Recovery
- From: Logan Shaw <lshaw-usenet@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 31 Aug 2005 07:55:23 GMT
Cameron Biggart wrote:
Well there are 2 nibbles on e-bay and it's up to $26 so I think you're out of luck. It's not the Mega$$$'s yet but who knows.
Despite everything eBay would tell you to the contrary, it is actually to your benefit to bid late in most cases. True, mathematically, since it's a second-price auction, the high bid is going to be the same regardless of when you make your bid as long as the bid is for the same amount.
But that ignores a few real world, practical considerations that don't figure into the formulae for second-price auctions. The first is that all outstanding bids are liabilities, because IF you win (and you don't know if you will), you have to shell out the money. And, all other things being equal, you want to have a liability of a given size for the shortest time possible. Later bids accomplish this for you.
The second is that, if you are looking at an item which is close to a commodity, and if you only want exactly one of them, it makes sense to delay committing to one item until the latest possible moment, because every second you wait, you potentially gain information about which are the best ones to bother with. There is no point in bothering with one that's already near your maximum price with a fair amount of time left.
The third reasons is that, if you are looking at something whose value is hard for some people to determine (such as an antique), and if you have a good amount of knowledge about that type of item, then making your bid early can actually generate interest in the item. If something is worth $500 but people don't know whether it's worth $5 or $10,000, then when you put in a bid for $300, that alerts some people that this item might be more worthwhile than they think, and they might outbid you on the assumption that you're hoping to get a bargain at $300. Especially if you use eBay a lot and other bidders know that you know your stuff and that you know the right amount to bid on things.
The point here is that bidding late is a rational strategy for various reasons, which means that you should expect that the price of your item will grow a lot toward the end of the auction. In fact, even in a 7-day auction, it's quite possible for the price to double in the last hour or even the last 10 minutes. In reality, the only rational reason to explain why eBay allows you to leave the auction open for periods as long as 7 days is that the first 6 days and 12 hours are a nice way of advertising your product and making people aware that it's for sale. (And the advertising generates more interest if people believe that the auction has already started.)
So anyway, the point is that high bid on your auction 2 days into a 7 day auction doesn't really give you very much information at all about what the closing price will be. You can get a much more accurate estimate by searching for similar items and limiting the search to completed items to see what those similar items sold for, then making adjustments based on differences between your item and the similar items.
If you had ended up with it of course you would have sat it on a shelf and thought 'I must get around to doing something with that' for a few years and then finally flogged it off on e-bay when your SO needed the space.
There are compilers that can rid of that, you know. But what they can't get rid of is infinite loops.
- Logan .
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