OT: A Rebuttal to Michael's Global Warming Story
- From: Tick <oltick@xxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 11 Jan 2009 17:26:44 -0800 (PST)
It was quite some time ago Michael posted here with a subject header
of something to the effect of, "read 'em and weep." It was a dire
warning about the coming global warming and how we were all going to
certainly die, and soon, from radiation burns or some equally hedious
man-made torture. I for one never believed it for a moment 'cause
anything coming from the scientific mind of Al Gore seemed more
humorous than dangerous.
Here's a little tidbit from today's Pravda (hey, know your enemy) that
seems a thousand fold more plausible. Pravda means truth. All this
was a big joke during communist time when Pravda was the official
mouthpiece of the party.
http://english.pravda.ru/print/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0
Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
11.01.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru
The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according
to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of
climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base
of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand
year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and
then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000
years.
Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of
ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic
pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000
years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about
12,000 years.
Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also
shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which
are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich
cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year
period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of
100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the
earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s
axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich
theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of
which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth,
act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm
interglacials.
Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first
presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was
developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the
theory was established in its present form by the Czech mathematician
Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious
journal “Science” published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James
Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth’s
orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,” which described the correlation
which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data
obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the
astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich
theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age
causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory
is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia
articles about the Ice Ages.
In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own
climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the
Milankovich cycles, “… must be qualified in two ways. First, they
apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and
not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of
fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because
they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and
longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted…
the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000
years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler
climate.”
During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other
scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as
carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to
catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of
‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as
fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of
AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make
pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.
The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW
theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al
Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’
graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began
during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However,
this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered
the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the
coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current
Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass
the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.
The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on
evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring
the evidence from the past million years — evidence which is essential
for a true understanding of climatology. The data from
paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible
explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the
natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.
In 1999 the British journal “Nature” published the results of data
derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia ’s Vostok
station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data
includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2
and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from
420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present
time.
The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums
and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the
graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an
electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that
changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by
about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global
temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse.
In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global
temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global
temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.
The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the
global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more
CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their
carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our
carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them
from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or
CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural
Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing
amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the
changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2
levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end
of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be
eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels
begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s
oceans.
The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels
regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of
Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty
thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years
global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at
approximately the same levels which they are at today.
About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global
temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we
are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial,
and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky,
we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as
it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any
influence from the effects of AGW.
The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously
narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the
‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from
paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology,
paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering
another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting
climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over
the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to
distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real
threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render
large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being
foolishly ignored.
Gregory F. Fegel
© 1999-2006. «PRAVDA.Ru
.
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