Pats-Jags pregame analysis
- From: john.vampatella@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: Fri, 11 Jan 2008 06:22:09 -0800 (PST)
Here's why New England will beat Jacksonville and cover the spread:
1. The matchups favor New England. Lining up New England's passing
offense and running offense versus Jacksonville's pass defense and run
defense, and then doing the reverse when Jax is on offense, here's
what we get:
NE offense vs. Jax defense
- pass
(yds - #1 - 295.7 ypg vs. #15 - 213.5 ypg)
(comp % - #1 - 68.8% vs. #7 - 58.7%)
(ypa - #1 - 8.29 vs. #13 - 6.74)
(rating - #1 - 116.0 vs. #7 - 76.1)
(sacked - #5 - 21/128 vs. #9 - 37/244)
(touchdowns - #1 - 50 vs. #11 - 20)
(interceptions - #2 - 9 vs. #4 - 20)
AVG RANKING - 1.8 vs. 9.4 - edge: large edge to NE
- rush
(yds - #13 - 115.6 ypg vs. #11 - 100.3 ypg)
(ypc - #14 - 4.1 vs. #17 - 4.1)
(att - #9 - 28.2/g vs. #6 - 24.4/g)
(touchdowns - #5 - 17 vs. #17 - 12)
(fumbles - #1 - 10 vs. #22 - 16)
AVG RANKING - 8.4 vs. 14.6 - edge: large edge to NE
Jax offense vs. NE defense
- pass
(yds - #17 - 208.0 ypg vs. #6 - 190.1 ypg)
(comp% - #14 - 61.4% vs. #12 - 59.7%)
(ypa - #6 - 7.45 vs. #7 - 6.43)
(rating - #4 - 97.1 vs. #11 - 78.1)
(sacked - #15 - 31/167 vs. #2 - 47/340)
(touchdowns - #9 - 28 vs. #18 - 23)
(interceptions - #1 - 8 vs. #6 - 19)
AVG RANKING - 9.4 vs. 8.9 - edge: slight edge to NE
- rush
(yds - #2 - 149.4 ypg vs. #10 - 98.3 ypg
(ypc - #3 - 4.6 vs. #26 - 4.4)
(att - #2 - 32.6/g vs. #1 - 22.5/g)
(touchdowns - #4 - 18 vs. #3 - 7)
(fumbles - #3 - 13 vs. #19 - 18)
AVG RANKING - 2.8 vs. 11.8 - edge: large edge to Jax
Turnovers
- NE offense vs. Jax defense: 9 int/6 fum (15 giveaways) vs. 20 int/
10 fum (30 takeaways) - diff: NE+15
- Jax offense vs. NE defense: 8 int/13 fum (21 giveaways) vs. 19 int/
12 fum (31 takeaways) - diff: Jax+10
Here's why the matchups favor New England. New England's offensive
strength (passing) is so much better than Jacksonville's ability to
defend it, that in order to slow it down, they'll have to develop a
game plan designed specifically to stop/slow down the passing game.
Extra DB's, pass blitzes, rolling coverage, whatever they do, their
attention will have to be on the passing game of NE. But the running
game of NE in normal situations is the equal of the run defense of the
Jaguars. So by committing extra men/energy to defending NE's passing
game, it suddenly makes New England's running game very effective. In
other words, they won't be able to stop both.
But the reverse isn't necessarily true for Jacksonville's defense.
New England must commit extra guys to stopping the run, that's for
sure. But they can do that because their pass defense is better than
Jacksonville's pass offense. So they'll be taking from an area of
superiority and turning it into an area of equality, while shoring up
the area of inequality making it an area of equality. In order for
Jacksonville to stop New England, they'll need to take an area of
relative equality (Jax' run D vs. NE's run O...and I say "relative"
because it's closer than the difference is in the passing game) and
make it an area of severe inequality in order to try to even things up
in the passing game.
2. Home-field advantage. In the playoffs, since their magical run in
2001, the Patriots are 6-0 at Gillette. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is
1-1 on the road in the playoffs, including a 28-3 pasting at the hands
of New England a couple of years ago. The reality is that this
Patriots team is extremely tough to beat at home in situations like
this.
3. Experience. New England has won 3 Super Bowls since 2001.
Jacksonville has won one playoff game over the same time span.
4. Coaching. Who would you rather have: Bill Belichick with an
extra week to prepare, or Jack Del Rio?
5. The bye week. Stats show that teams with a first round bye gain a
huge advantage over teams that have had to play a wild-card round
game. Clearly, Jacksonville had to struggle last week in Pittsburgh,
and now, as a result, has several players injured. New England comes
in as healthy and rested as they've ever been, and that's important
considering the age of their linebackers. Plus, the Pats have won 9
straight coming off a bye week (regular season and postseason
combined). Think this won't help NE?
6. The quarterbacks. Garrard is a nice player, one who can lead a
winning franchise, and probably one who can win a Super Bowl
eventually. Tom Brady is an all-time great quarterback in the prime
of his career, coming off the greatest regular season any QB has ever
had. Garrard has won one playoff game; Brady is 12-2 lifetime in the
playoffs, with three Super Bowl rings and two Super Bowl MVP
trophies. If the game is on the line, who do you want making the
plays for you?
The only scenario whereby I think Jacksonville wins is if the
following things happen:
(1) The Pats' OL has a bad game, and that leads to sacks of Tom
Brady. That can lead to turnovers and drive-killing plays. It can
also lead to no holes for the running game.
(2) Jacksonville may need to make a huge play on special teams, like
they did last week with Jones-Drew running a kickoff back all the way
to the 1 yard line.
(3) Garrard plays out of his mind. Merely "efficient" probably isn't
enough. The Pats are going to force him to make plays. If he makes
them, they have a chance.
I'm going to assume that, even with the Pats stacking the box against
the run, that Jax will get their rushing yards. I'm also assuming
that Brady won't have an uncharacteristically bad day if he gets
normal protection. He could have a bad day if the OL breaks down.
The pick: New England 27, Jacksonville 16
Go Pats!!!
John
.
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