Re: 3-1 Leads Are Overrated

"igor eduardo küpfer" <edkupfer@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:lnms52hs4ug240ea55ashic0hh0avcgoro@xxxxxxxxxx
Since the 1980 playoffs, 3 teams with HCA have come back from 1-3, out of
the 28 opportunities (11%). From a theoretical perspective, the
probability
of a comeback is estimated by

p(comeback) = p(HomeWin)*p(AwayWin)*p(HomeWin)

where
p(HomeWin) = (HW%*(1-AW%)*HCA)/(HW%*(1-AW%)*HCA + (1-HW%)*AW%*(1-HCA))
p(AwayWin) = (HW%*(1-AW%)*(1-HCA))/(HW%*(1-AW%)*(1-HCA) + (1-HW%)*AW%*HCA)
HW% = Home team win% (or some estimate of game winning ability)
AW% = Away team win%
HCA = Home court advantage. Historically, it is around 60% in the NBA.

If we use PHX/LAL regular season win totals as estimates of win ability,
we
find that the probability of PHX winning three in a row, Home>Away>Home,
is
about 26%.

What if the situation had been reversed (Lakers down 3-1)? What would the
probability be then?


.

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