Re: Joba has a change(up)

On Tue, 26 Feb 2008 08:50:44 -0800 (PST), john.vampatella@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

On Feb 26, 11:31 am, Vinnie S. <n...@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

First off, Vinnie, please don't take what I said as any way demeaning
any of the Yankee guys, or as a statement that the Red Sox guys are
better. I was just giving props to Joba and then it hit me that both
teams have some really good young pitching right now. That's all.

I don't think you were demeaning him at all. But I think your were using the
same criteria that you used for Papelbon in 2005.

If I were a Sox fan, I would probably just hope that Joba becomes one of
those tantalizing arms that never quite puts everything together.    And if
he does put everything together, just have to hope you miss his turn in the
rotation a few times a year :)

Well, I said the same thing about Papelbon when he first came up in 2005. As I
remember, you said you wouldn't trade him for anything, unless it was Oswalt.
This was based on around a 30 inning stint. I thought this was stupid at the
time. Granted, you ended up being right. But you can't sit here 3 years later,
and pull a 180.

At least I'd have traded him for a great pitcher. Yankee fans
wouldn't have parted with Chamberlain, even if it meant getting the
best pitcher of his generation - Johan Santana - back.

Right. But my point was that you said he could fizzle out. But you didn't feel
the same about papelbon's 30 innings in 2005.

Didn't Bill Pulsipher possess an unbelievable arm?  

Irrelevent. I could probably name 100 pitchers in similar situations. Papelbon
is closer to Joba in respect of coming up from the minors and dominating for 30
innings.

Yep.

I think Joba is
amazing, but more than one young stud has flamed out quickly after
lighting the baseball world up for a brief time.  If he stays healthy,
boy, he's going to be nasty.  

When I said this about Papelbon in 2005, I was fried. I based this on 30 IP he
came up and pitched in. Clearly, he didn't flame out. But it's funny how that
works.

Well, to be fair, he *almost* flamed out. He did miss a month and a
half at the end of 2006 with a shoulder injury that was pretty close
to being an unmitigated disaster. They were very fortunate that he
got through that.

And this concerns me with Girardi. I have not said much about Joba at all this
winter. Mostly out of fear of injury. I am a big believer in IP and endurance.
Joba has none. You can't just throw him out there and give him 180 innings. His
arm will fall off.

But then again, so is Clay Buchholz.

Buchholz, age 22 (2007) - 22.7 ip, 14 h, 6 r, 4 er, 10 bb, 22 k, 1.59
era, 298 era+, 1.06 whip (includes one no-hitter)
Chamberlain, age 21 (2007) - 24.0 ip, 12 h, 2 r, 1 er, 6 bb, 34 k,
0.38 era, 1192 era+ (!!), 0.75 whip

Buchholz doesn't have Joba's arm. He was topping out at 93.

I agree. Not the same power. But everything he throws is a plus
pitch. His changeup was ridiculously good last year. I assume you
watched him throw and would agree.

He is probably
closer to Hughes with respect to velocity and control. Buchholz had a better
track record because he had spent his entire career in the minors. Joba was in
college, which I normally completely discount because of aluminum bats. So Joba
does not have the track record.

Chamberlain was ridiculous.  Buchholz was merely stupendous.  

This is a stretch. Buckholz started 3 games. Joba had a much bigger impact for
his team. Bucholz was used as a emergency/spot starter last year, and was shut
down shortly after the no hitter.

Buchholz, in the innings he pitched, was phenomenal. Yes, it was a
small sample size, but then again, it was only a couple of innings
less than Chamberlain threw.

But it was in a different situations. The Yankees season hinged on Joba's
performance. Buchholz was essentially icing on the cake.

What I am seeing here, is you don't like the fact that Buchholz is not getting
the media attention that Joba is getting.  

??? What are you talking about? As I said above, I didn't bring up
the Sox guys because of anything negative. I think Joba is
tremendous, and thinking about him reminded me that fans of both the
Yanks and Sox are in the enviable position of having some outstanding
young pitching talent (not to mention everyday talent like Cano,
Pedroia, Melky, Ellsbury) on our teams. Why do you think that this is
automatically a slam against the Yanks or a whine about press
coverage?

Well, you used a Bill Pulsipher reference/comparison, which I covered above, You
didn;t say he sucked, but you did say he could fizzle.

Lester, age 23 (2007) - 63.0 ip, 61 h, 33 r, 32 er, 31 bb, 50 k, 4.57
era, 104 era+, 1.46 whip (coming off cancer!, wins the final game of
the World Series)
Hughes, age 21 (2007) - 72.2 ip, 64 h, 39 r, 36 er, 29 bb, 58 k, 4.46
era, 100 era+, 1.28 whip

The four of these guys...wow.

Lester is a 4th or 5th starter. And there is enough data to predict that.

Maybe. Maybe not. Don't forget that he's already an above-average
starter in the majors, based on his body of work. His era+ is above
average (slightly, but still). His win/loss percentage is off the
charts. I know there's not a lot of value to that, but it shows that
he hangs in there and keeps his team in the games. He's coming off
*cancer*, for crying out loud. And he throws 93-94, has a nasty
slider, and if he ever gains command (some say that's possible, others
disagree), he could be a consistent 14-15 game winner in the
majors...which would make him much better than a 4th or 5th starter.
On some teams, a 15-game winner is their ace.

Lester is a 101 ERA+ on 144 IP. That is not above average. His K-IP is also not
great for AL East. Strangely enough, he is closer to Bill Pulsipher in term of
early impact.


Clay should be better than Schilling 2007, and should be better than any of the
Yankees three because I think he will have a much higher inning limit. He should
be able to pitch at least 30 more innings than any of the Yankees 3. Kennedy
might come close in IP.

Vinnie S.

You might be right about that. I don't know the innings limit these
teams set...I assume it's between 150 and 180 somewhere.

John


I think alot of people ate making way too big a deal about the no hitter. As you
remember, Hugher had one into the 7th inning in Texas, before he popped a hammy.
Also, September no hitters are common:

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1208/is_n12_v216/ai_13260277

Add that it was a pathetic O's tea and lineup:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS200709010.shtml


He has to just be better than Schilling. Schilling had a good ERA+ last year,
but that was deceptive. He clearly lost velocity, and he was shut down for 2
months. Had he been allowed to pitch, his numbers would have been in shambles.


Vinnie S.
.

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