Re: Andruw Jones

On Dec 7, 3:43 pm, Pepe Papon <a...@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Fri, 7 Dec 2007 05:04:36 -0800 (PST), BadgerBC

<neilrichardson3...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
This is the scariest deal of all, and the reason that every mama needs to
tell her baby to give up basketball, football and hockey, and hell,
calculus, and learn to play baseball. A guy coming off a .226 season, with
26 HRs, gets $18 million per season for two years! You can't make this
stuff up.

What really shocks me is that either Jones or Boras accepted a two
year deal. I would've thought this would come down to a one year deal
that is heavy on incentives. Boras has advocated going for one-year
deals (e.g., Kevin Millwood) in order to restore a player's value and
then going after a multiple year deal that is more to a player's
liking.

But, in this case, the 2-year deal was so good that it had to be hard
to pass up. Even if Jones were to have a good year in 2008, how much
more do you think he' be able to get for 2009?

I think given that he'll be 31, he could get a six year deal probably
around Soriano's range per annum if he does hit around 2005 or 2006
level. He could do better next year but if he were to try to cash in
for the same length (four more years at least after the current deal),
he'd have to really come close to his career best in the scond year at
age 32. I'm not certain how likely that migh be. It's silly because
it's just one more year, but unfortunately perception tends to become
reality (esp. if a player has a reputation for lollygagging). Soriano
got his deal at age 31. When Damon became a FA after 2005, people had
a different perception simply because he was 32. Unless an athlete is
like Winfield or A-Rod (and both never got hurt), I think many in the
industry are very subjective about how an athlete is viewed as "young
enough" versus "old."

What's crazy is that Andruw's career OPS+ is 113 while Sori's OPS+ is
116. You have to remember that Sori's two years in Texas were rather
pedestrian offensively while he was the worst 2B defensively (100 and
109 OPS+). He worked hard in Washington and cashed in. I think even
though it's just one year, age works against Andruw and he really
needs to do well the second year. If I'm Boras, I'd have advised him
to go all out next year and get that long term deal after 2008. This
year there were a lot CFs (Hunter, Cameron, Rowand), but next year
there aren't anyone who could touch Jones (Jim Edmonds and Mark
Kotsay) if he has a good season in 2008.
.

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