Re: Joba-Mo

On Oct 11, 1:38 am, BadgerBC <neilrichardson3...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On Oct 9, 2:14 pm, "Tom K" <mrycle...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:





I don't know how to quantify it, but it would be an interesting study
for Baseball Prospectus to undertake: which is a (1) more valuable and a
(2) scarcer asset, looking at (1) and (2) for each case individually?:

* A great starter vs a great closer?
* A pretty reliable starter vs a pretty reliable closer?
* A decidely average starter vs a decidedly average closer?

In all cases, it's going to come out in favor of the starter.

If you want to have some sort of true analysis, you need to make it
something like this:

A great closer vs a good starter?
A good closer vs. a #5 starter?

etc. etc.

If you want to do "great vs. great", it's no contest.

This probably falls into the traditionalist side of the argument in
favor of closers (and I think it applies to both good and great
closers), but morale factor plays a role here. I firmly believe (like
you and others here) the relief ace role is misused by too many
managers (although Joe didn't in the postseason with Mo). However,
the effect of repeatedly blown saves on the morale of the clubhouse
probably ought not to be minimized. The question is what is the
proper percentage of conversion ratio. An interesting factor is how
the Tigers and the Indians are using veterans who clearly do not
possess the best stuff as closers in Jones and Borowski while saving
the best relievers for the crucial 7th and 8th inning work (facing the
heart of the opposing lineups). I think if a closer converts most
(let's say 85 percent as the bottom threshold) during the regular
season, that's probably enough. Of course Mo's value we all agree is
the postseason work. However, I'll still maintain that a starter
could do more to put a team into the postseason than a closer. The
fact is the relative gap between a closer like Mo and a good closer
isn't nearly as great as plenty have short shelf life and have
dominant stretches (even a young Todd Jones).

BTW, I had posted Beane's comments three years ago (during an
interview with Barbieri and Tolbert on KNBR) on his reasons for the
Dotel trade. Even Beane had to consider the closer's non-sabermetric
impact in decision-making process. This is just another comment Beane
made on what had happened to his clubhouse after Rhodes blew some big
games that season

http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/1/25/233348/110

Blez: I certainly don't feel that way. That may have been a part of
the initial emotional reaction of the trades, but once you take a step
back and take a look you realize that the team has gotten better in
two areas and for the future.

BB: Does that mean that we aren't going to have our ups and downs?
No, we are absolutely going to. We're going to be a little more
volatile in certain areas. There will be things that just don't work
out as planned. One thing I've always prided myself on, and I had
this conversation with Tim Hudson-- when we were in Chicago, if you
recall, we lost two out of three this year. We lost a couple of games
in St. Louis and it was starting to come to a head. I called Tim
Hudson when we were in Chicago and it was beginning to fracture the
clubhouse, if you recall. I called Tim and not too many people know
this, and I said, "Tim, we'll fix it before the end of the week.
We'll get this thing taken care of, we're going to get it fixed." I
remember thinking to myself when we hung up, because I remember
telling Tim we were going to fix it, I wasn't quite sure the answer
myself. But he needed to know that we were doing something. I think
it was by the end of that week when we got Dotel. I'm both patient
and impatient. I'm patient when I know something is going to work
out. But if I can see things that are evident and obvious to me,
we're going to fix them.

http://www.athleticsnation.com/story/2005/1/25/233348/110-

That's just a ruse to cover up Beane's statheadedness. He's a number
lover who thinks the game is played by computers.

.

Relevant Pages

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