Re: The bad part about 2011

On Tue, 05 Oct 2010 18:04:04 -0700, Matt wrote:

On Oct 5, 2:44 pm, Ruben Safir <mrbrk...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 2010-10-04, Jesse13820 <jess225...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:







Even if there were big name FA's out there I believe the Wilpons are
fighting money woes (Madoff?) and wouldn't invest in a big free
agent.

According to Jeff today, the Met business is insulated from other
businesses.
If so, the management has established a payroll limit like any
business.

The thread is correct in that there is little reason for optimism
until the salaries of Ollie and Castillo come off the books.  And of
course there is the question as to what will become of Beltran.

You may get lucky, Beltran with a contract run. Reyes with a rebound
year hoping for a new contract. Bay back to normal.
Problem is, you need backups for these guys or risk another year of
lame offense.

All this will mean nothing if the bench remains barren of any effective
offense players.  they must have about 5 guys on the bench who can hit
and get on base.

First of all, let's look at what they have that they need to deal with:

Free agents: Henry Blanco, C; Elmer Dessens, RHP; Kelvim Escobar, RHP;
Pedro Feliciano, LHP; Hisanori Takahashi, LHP; Fernando Tatis, OF.

Of these, only Takahashi is important. The rest of them can go.

Eligible for arbitration: R.A. Dickey, RHP; Sean Green, RHP; John Maine,
RHP; Angel Pagan, OF; Mike Pelfrey, RHP.

Dickey is likely to stay, Green we don't know about. Maine is likely
gone. Pagan and Pelfrey will likely get raises and stay.

Player options: None.
Club options: Jose Reyes, SS, $11 million.

I'm sure they will pick this one up.

Non-tender possibilities: Green, Maine.

Almost certainly.

(The above from mets.com).

Now, holes they need to fill:

2B, certainly.
At least one starting pitcher, unless they believe that the current
rotation is going to come back.
That would be:

Santana (after surgery)
Pelfrey
Dickey
Niese
possibly Gee.
possibly Misch

Positions I believe they are set at:

1b: Davis.
SS Reyes
3B Wright
C Thole
CF Beltran (unless they can make a big deal here) RF Bay
LF Pagan

That leaves 2B, the bullpen, and the bench.

There are problems in that starting lineup. There is no way, IMO, they
can head into next season with that OF of Pagan in RF and Beltran in CF
and Bay in RF.

Assuming Beltran is healthy, his bat is the best of the three, and he has
to stay healthy. He has to move to RF. Otherwise, and there shouldn't
be an otherwise because Beltran IMO can not remain in CF, the need a BIG
bat for LF, and Pagan is the 4th OFer.

Secondly, Thole can not remain behind the plate by himself without a
platoon. It is likely that in a second season he will hit 265 with no
power and a 385 OBP,,,which is FINE for a rookie, but not acceptable for
the needs of the line up. They can't have the catching position running
with an 85 OPS+, like Baltimore is doing. This is not to say they should
let Thole go, but he is a project, with I hope a bright future.

Thirdly, Tejadah can NOT play second base at this point. This team, more
than others, must have a 2nd baseman who can hit. Tejadah is at least a
year away from even being a league average hitter, despite his SUPER
GREAT glove.

And then there is Reyes. I love Reyes, but I agree with a lot of the
people who see him as not the superstar that many perceived him to be,
even before his injury. The guy is a slightly above average hitter,
which for a SS is good. But he has to be a) Healthy .. which I think is
likely, and b) he needs to maximize his offensive talents through
discipline. He is reminding me of Mookie Wilson at times. I don't think
you can just write Reyes down, even when healthy, as a 120+ OPS guy.

And then there is Jason Bay...what a gamble this guy is at this point.
Bay was an OBP machine for a long time, and even at subpar playing was
better than many people thought during this season. They need a big
offensive output out of LF, and to me, that means one of my first
priorities in the off season is to get a platoon player for LF. It
minimizes Bay's risk to the ball club, strengthens the bench, and gives
them the likelihood of a combined 35+ HRs from that corner position with
a 550 slugging and 325 total bases.



2B: They could go with Tejada here and see what develops, potentially
signing a veteran for cheap.

No they can't - see above...

Bullpen: Assuming Takahashi is present, and Parnell, not to mention
Valdes and Green, they probably just need some minor help. The bench: As
Ruben points out, a BIG question mark.

They need to think Platoon at 2nd, LF, and Catcher and possibly 1st base
to strengthen the starting line up and fix the bench.

BTW - the major plus for Ike Davis, IMO, is his glove work.

Ruben
.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Castillo
    ... Omar quietly upgraded the bench and the ... lineup with Castillo, Marlon Anderson, and now Conine. ... not bag some bullpen help, but every other team is looking for that as well. ... The Mets, if they stay 95% healthy, are looking incredibly deep right ...
    (alt.sports.baseball.ny-mets)
  • Re: The bad part about 2011
    ... Assuming Beltran is healthy, his bat is the best of the three, and he has ... The bench: As ...
    (alt.sports.baseball.ny-mets)
  • What Wright is saying about "soft superstar"
    ... "superstar talent" who sits on bench for minor aches. ... You think he is referring to Beltran?? ...
    (alt.sports.baseball.ny-mets)
  • Re: Small Forwards
    ... Only as backup IMO - energy off the bench. ... legitimately play and stay healthy? ...
    (alt.sports.basketball.nba.la-lakers)
  • Re: What Wright is saying about "soft superstar"
    ... "superstar talent" who sits on bench for minor aches. ... Or, you can take what he said at face value, which was that he wanted to be like Ripkin, and chalk up the Beltran crisicism to the columnist for "interpreting" Wright's words. ...
    (alt.sports.baseball.ny-mets)