Re: IS Jose Reyes a poor fielder
- From: jonathan <jmerin77@xxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 4 Dec 2009 08:46:40 -0800 (PST)
I don't think any metric can adequately evaluate defender's ability.
That was my point. Nobody thinks there is a single metric that tells
you very much about defense.
For example in baseball we give more weight to extra-base hits and
especially HRs. However, in any defensive metric today there's no
added weight for defenders' ability to consistent make tough plays,
But that's not really important. A great play is worth exactly the
same as a routine play. It's one, two, or three outs. You can argue
that a great play takes a hit away, but the truth is that a routine
play takes a hit away, and in either case, and error is the same thing
as not making the play because it has the same end result.
In addition to that, it is impossible to say with certainty what a
great play is. You can't quantify it. We can't measure positioning,
or scouting, or even strategy. The Braves played 'pitch away, play
away' for 15 years. That doesn't mean they always had great
defenders, but they had a system that attempted to control to a
certain degree where the ball would be hit and position their fielders
accordingly. There is more then one defender out there who has skewed
numbers from their time in Atlanta. People don't necessarily know how
much defensive system is really involved in baseball. It's not just
guys standing out there moving around. It's no different from
football where you try to hide a defensive back by trying to roll
coverage his way. In baseball you pitch guys to try to hide a weak
outfielder.
incredible range, and other plays that only a handful of defenders can
make. Also strength of arms is not taken into consideration. A
strong arm SS like Reyes saves a few infield hits a year, that also
should be weighted more than a regular routine play.
OK, but Reyes plays deeper because he has that arm. Tony Fernandez
had no arm. Shawn Dunston had a great arm. Yet Fernandez was
routinely a better defensive shortstop because his positioning was
superior and he better understood angles.
My point here, which was my point to Ruben, is that if you want to
know who most likely are the better players at a position, you need to
look at all of the metrics. The better players show up at or near the
top of all of the advanced fielding metric lists. The worst players
show up at or near the bottom. Everybody else is in the middle.
There is no one number that tells you much about defense. It's the
average. I can tell you easily who the best pitchers and offensive
players in baseball are. Defense is much more difficult, and
everybody admits to that. There is some interesting stuff out there
trying to keep learning, but nobody thinks they've figured it out.
.
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