Re: Wait Wait Wait


"Sam Hutcheson" <samh@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1167849709.306707.324890@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Micheal Ray wrote:
340/405 in 42 ML at bats last year.

42 ABs in which he pretty much outperformed his MLE, right?

Yeah.

I could have used Chris Woodward
or Willy Aybar (364/403 as a 23 year old in ML.) I don't think the
Braves will be hard pressed to replace Giles' 2006 offense.

In seven minor-league seasons, Aybar has gone .342/.403. Your 2006 MLB
sample is 243 ABs.

Chris Woodward, granted, was playing through a shoulder injury which
required surgery in 2006. But, over his big-league career, he's gone
.303/.384, which is still a far cry from Giles' 2006 levels.

If the Mets can "fish" (not your words, I know) three league average
starters out of their minor league system to replace Pedro and Trachsel
I think it's reasonable to assume the Braves can find a 2B who can hit
340/400.

First off, I haven't contended that the Mets will have three starters in
their system capable of replacing Pedro and Trachsel; on the contrary, I've
been posting that the Mets have 300 innings to fill and it's not clear where
they will come from.

That said, I think among Vargas, Pelfrey, Perez and Humber, the Mets likely
have better candidates to fill their starting rotation needs than the Braves
have in second-base candidates among Johnson, Prado and Woodward.



He's been working out at second base with Glenn Hubbard all winter,
coming off Tommy John surgery. He doesn't have the range to play SS
but Hubbard taught Giles how to play 2B well enough. Johnson is my
favorite to open the season at 2B.

While I acknowledge that he might be the favorite, I'm not sure he'll be
able to handle the position in the field.

Neither could Giles for the most part. Or Jeff Blauser. I wouldn't be
shocked to see Johnson start and then get Belliared in the late innings
with a lead.

I think Moises Alou improves the offense.

He will at least be in the lineup more than Floyd. Any gain he brings
will be offset by Beltran's return to mean.


Beltran's 2006 wasn't appreciably different from his 2004.

It is unless you believe Minute Maid = Shea.

Beltran at home:
2004 (Minute Maid): 224/.326/.454
2006: (Shea) .224/.368/.487

Beltran on the road:
2004: .305/.412/.629
2006: .317/.406/.683


Beltran's OPS+ as a
starter:

99
68
119
108
126
136
136
136
95
153

You can try to argue that he set a new standard as a 29 year old and
that +/- 150 is what we should expect, which I will counter with "Brady
Anderson, 1996",

I don't think Anderson is particularly relevant here. At age 29, Anderson
was struggling post an OPS+ of 100. His subsequent success seemed like a
fluke, more so than taking his game to the next level.

I think Beltran's career is following a projectory; whether 2006 was the
high point remains to be seen.


but you can _not_ argue that 153 = 136.


Whether it was a career year or an elevation to his next level remains to be
seen. But his work previous to this doesn't suggest Brady Anderson.



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