Re: Let the Fun Begin!!!
- From: "L Alpert" <alpertl@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Sun, 1 Jan 2006 08:58:23 -0800
RUL ® wrote:
> On 31 Dec 2005 05:14:14 -0800, "jonathan"
> <jonathan.merin@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>
>>
>> RUL ® wrote:
>>> On Fri, 30 Dec 2005 19:32:19 -0500, "Scott Danzig"
>>> <scottdanzigSPAM@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>>>
>>>> "RUL ®" <raving@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
>>>> news:58bar1h2u7045fdgqjok3rhv671a2025gs@xxxxxxxxxx
>>>>>> He has a career .303 OBP.
>>>>>
>>>>> We're all well aware of this problem. The ability to walk,
>>>>> however, is a separate skill from the ability to _hit_.
>
>>>> I don't agree with this. Being more selective, allowing you to
>>>> draw a walk, also lets you wait for good pitches to hit, in the
>>>> event that you don't see 4 balls. Waiting for good pitches to hit
>>>> raises a BA.
>
>>> That sounds nice in theory, but it doesn't necessarily work that way
>>> in reality. Todd Zeile, for instance, was one of the most
>>> selective hitters around and consistently ranked near the top of
>>> the league in seeing the most pitches per at bat, but he was never
>>> much more
>>> than a mediocre hitter. Mike Piazza, on the other hand, wasn't a
>>> particularly selective hitter but was certainly more effective than
>>> Zeile overall.
>
>>> I can think of plenty of great natural hitters who weren't
>>> particularly patient or selective at the plate -- Yogi Berra,
>>> Roberto Clemente and Tony Oliva are just a few names that
>>> come to mind. On the other end of the spectrum, we have guys
>>> like Max Bishop and Ed Yost, who were veritable walk machines but
>>> hardly what you'd call fearsome hitters.
>
>>> I think we're talking about two different skill sets here.
>> Part of it is that it's VERY rare to find a hitter who actually
>> learns to walk at the Major League level.
>
> It's not that unusual to find a player who _improves_ his ability to
> walk at the major league level, however. (Edgardo Alfonzo is
> one fairly dramatic example.) What makes Reyes' case hopeful, at
> least, is that he's still young, and bad habits are easier to unlearn
> at his age.
Alfonso is a different story. He needed to change his approach, because he
seemed to have lost most of his hitting abilities (for whatever the
reasons).
I have watched him over the last few years since I am in the SF Bay area and
the Giants have a pretty full HD schedule. He has been but a shadow of his
former self. Weak ground outs, GDP an pop ups have plagued him and he has
little power. It has been sad to watch.
>
>> Walks by themselves in a vacuum
>> don't mean very much in evaluating a hitter. What is more critical
>> is the ratio of walks to strikeouts. Good hitters tend to have
>> strong walk to strikeout ratios.
>
> Quick quiz: here are two BB:K ratios from the career seasons of two
> recent NY Mets. Who are they? (Scroll down for the answer --
> no peeking.)
>
> Player A: 49:59
> Player B: 69:77
>
> Give up? Player A is Rey Ordonez. Player B is Mike Piazza.
>
>> Those ratios tend to be present as far back
>> as the Minor Leagues. What is rare is for a hitter to suddenly show
>> improvement in that area in the Major Leagues without having
>> demonstrated some aptitute in the Minors first.
>
> Reyes was putting up .350+ OBAs in the lower minors, so I don't think
> he's altogether unfamiliar with the concept of walking.
His first year his OBA was .334 (limited AB's).
>If we're
> waiting for him to become the second coming of Rickey Henderson,
> then we're probably going to end up disappointed, but his track record
> does suggest that he's capable of better than he's doing right now,
> and he's very coachable. I think it's way too soon for people to
> assume that he's not capable of improvement in this area.
At 22, he can still learn. Time will tell.....though it seems history may
be against him...
Comparing some "similar" players at Reyes current age (as per the BB
reference).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=reyesjo01:Jose+Reyes&st=age&age=22&compage=22
When you view this, click on the comparisons for these players over time.
At age 33, very little improvement in the average OBP (.008), though some of
them made some fairly large improvements (Joe Cronin, age 22 OBP .358. age
33, .389, Jack Doyle +.020), but off course, others dropped quite a bit.
Reyes has shown he can hit .300 BA (limited AB), his K/AB ratio is about 10,
so there is no reason that he cannot have .300/.350 years with only modest
improvements in pitch selection. At least he isn't Ordonez.
.
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