Re: OT: More on gas prices


"dvaoa" <dvaoa@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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On Jun 10, 10:55 am, "Fred Burton" <fbur...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"dvaoa" <dv...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

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On Jun 10, 8:53 am, "Fred Burton" <fbur...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
"dvaoa" <dv...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message

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On Jun 10, 2:48 am, mario in victoria <mario5...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
Well, in Victoria this morning Regular went up to $1.469 a liter.

That's $5.93/Imp gallon
and $5.44/US gallon

Okay.
Now I'm getting pissed.

mario in victoria
--
and in toronto it's 1.30/ltr. go figure.

http://www.chevrolet.com/electriccar/
http://www.google.org/recharge/

I'd originally said gas would hit $5/gallon by the summer of
09...and
I thought I was being aggressive. It'll be there by this fall, I
guess. This is what it takes tor the proverbial "paradigm shift"
for
automakers and drivers to finally and seriously commit to a fully
functional electric vehicle.

I saw an article very recently (perhaps late last week) on how GM
was working on an interesting sort of hybrid car.

Instead of the hybrid model that has a gas and electric engine,
this new hybrid had only an electric engine, instead of a secondary
gas engine, it has a gas powered electric generator. Apparantly
the reason for this switch is that gas engines when you go faster
have to work harder and use more gas, whereas they claim that
the generator will simply run at a constant speed, producing
electricity for the electric engine.

Interesting idea.

Also, the advantage of an electric-only car is that of weight...or
lack thereof. Without the heft of a IC engine, these cars are much
lighter...and faster. A solenoid motor also lasts a lot longer. The
EV-1 motors (from the first production electric car in the mid-90's)
were estimated to have a lifespan of ~1 million miles. Only thing
you'd have to change is the brushes.

Batteries? Somehow, I doubt that the batteries lifespan was a million
miles.



The advantage of a plug-in hybrid is you would use the electric cells
exclusively for local commuting, and you'd have the flexibility of
using gas for long trips (or when you forgot to charge the
batteries). The downside is, you now have two propulsion systems to
maintain.

The downside of a strictly battery powered electric car is its total
lack of range. And frankly, I think that downside makes them unsellable.
It's necessary to produce an electric car that can go and go and go
without any range limitation.

And another downside is the enormous cost of replacing a battery.
I think that we'll start seeing this as the current crop of hybrids start
showing up on the used car market after a few years. Who in their
right mind would want to buy a used hybrid with a battery that's
very near the end of its useful life and would need to be replaced,
possibly at about $3,000 for the battery? (Of course, I suppose
that this makes buying a brand new hybrid more attractive, since
presumably you are getting a nice brand new battery. And I'm sure
that it doesn't bother the auto manufacturers either.)

The battery range is getting better; the current ceiling on lithium
ion technology is ~200 miles (which would depend on a number of
factors...temperature, weight, etc.). The EV1 battery in the mid 90's
has a range of only 60 mi IIRC. So no, you won't get a million miles
from a single battery, but I'll bet consumers would be willing to dump
$3k every 5 years or so for a new battery on a car that costs them
pennies per gallon of gas equivalent.

That depends. I've gotta tell you that there's no way in hell that I'd buy
used electric or hybrid unless I knew with ABSOLUTE certainty that
the battery was either new or almost new. Buying a used electric or
hybrid with a nearly worn out battery is sort of like buying a house
that needs a new septic system.

I suppose if you like your electric car and don't want to buy a new one,
a $3K investment in a new battery wouldn't be too big a deal. But I
just don't see anyone wanting to spend serious money on a good used
car that might also have a $3k secondary cost.


An interesting side question is how should you properly rate such batteries?
Miles? Years of use? Number of Recharges? Miles is of course, the more
traditional one, but I wonder if it is as appropriate for such large
batteries?
Will an EV battery get worn out at the same rate whether its car is driven
10 miles a day or 100 miles a day? Or would its wear be better measured
by how many times you've recharged it? Also, how does this change
depending on whether it's getting something like a nightly p;lug-in charge,
vs a constant recharge with the car is in operation?

It seems like there are a lot of unanswered questions about cars using
electric motors. Not per se negative concerns. It's just that the IC
engine
is so familiar and its faults and foibles are just so familiar to the
driving
public that electric motor driven cars can seem so alien, since I doubt
many of us have much of any clue what little problems can arise with
them. Of course, that will change over time.

But I've got a feeling that as we transition from IC cars to whatever
the next generation of vehicles may be, we may be in for a lengthy
transition period as a considerable number of competing ideas will
have to be winnowed out before the market place decides on the
next paradigm.




Unless automakers build these
cars with philosophy of programmed obsolescence, they also have to
make a profit somehow, otherwise why would they bother in the first
place?

True.



But the real solution to the battery range issue is in a parallel
recharging system as the car drives, sort of like an alternator. And
over time, as these cars overtake conventional IC vehicles, the
recharging station infrastructure will also grow out of necessity; so,
if you're taking a long trip, you stop for lunch & charge your battery
at the same time to extend your range.


Last I knew, recharging took hours, which might be ok for a commute,
but would really suck if you wanted to drive from Mass. up to the White
Mountains on a day trip or something even longer.




Here's my prediction: The majority of people driving an IC vehicle
now *will* be switching to a hybrid or a plug-in for their next car.
How can they not with the way gas prices are going?

I think that it depends GREATLY on a person's or family's needs.
Those cars may work fine if you live in the burbs and don't drive
far to work or on errands. But I suspect that if you live out in
the rural sections of the country, where the distances you drive
are far greater, I doubt that a plug-in would be worth spit. A
hybrid might work, but I can't say that I've heard of any hybrid
pickups.



Here's another bigger question: What about the transportation
industry? We spend $20/week on gas, but we spend over $100/week on
groceries. Unless the transport industry adopts new fuel efficiency
standards or alternate fuel technologies, our rising inflation will
only be partially mitigated by driving go-carts and dune buggies.

Actually, I think that these so-called "alternate fuel technologies"
may have done more harm than good, as they are actually causing
food prices to go up. Alternate fuel tech is causing an unhealthy
competition between the fuel and food markets, which is not a
good thing in many countries where they can barely afford their
food as it is. I think that we should be trying to find ways to
fuel/power our vehicles that doesn't "fuel" (pardon the pun)
a price war between fuel and food in agriculture.


I also think that it's probably pointless to worry about
fuel efficiency for 18 wheelers. I have a hard time imaging
them ever being fuel efficient unless you are able to produce
a revolutionary new way to power such heavy load vehicles.



.

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