Re: Ellsbury and Lester: what do we have here?

On Jan 30, 4:55 pm, jwrag...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
On Jan 30, 4:17 pm, CalC <calcarpent...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:





On Jan 30, 11:17 am, john.vampate...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:

On Jan 30, 11:00 am, Wayback1918 <wayback1...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Jan 30, 10:40 am, CalC <calcarpent...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I never wanted to trade to "keep him away" from NYY but in all honesty
it was a real fear. Now with that said the fact they didn't get
him....we didn't deal three or four top flight prospects and he is off
the table is great news. He would have fit in nicely but the Yankees
are no better pitching wise than last year and we won the WS. So at
least short glance if our youngsters develop equal or better than
theirs we are in a nice spot to have a real shot to repeat.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I think the Yankees pitching is much better off this year.

Wang is very good pitcher

Yep, during the regular season.  Very nice #2.

Petitte should be able to be close to 2007 level

Probably, but he's not getting any younger either.

The three young guys are 'potentially' a huge upgrade over Pavano,
Igawa and dozen guys they had to use.

I agree with this.  Those other guys were useless.  But there's big
risks with going with young guys like the Yanks will.

Mussina is certainly on the down side

Yep, no doubt.

The Yankee's biggest question may come late in the year when Hughes,
Chamberlain and Kennedy are all at high inning counts. Will they shut
down a big part of there rotation or risk injury to the young arms.

Good question.  I hadn't thought of this.  If you're relying on Joba
and Hughes, but if their innings limit is 150 apiece, that's a lot of
innings you're still going to need to get out of some pretty lousy
guys.

I also don't see much difference in the relievers.

Well, if Joba moves to the rotation, that's a HUGE loss in the
bullpen.  He was dominant as a bridge to Mariano.  Losing him and
Vizcaino will hurt.  I don't think Hawkins is much better than
Vizcaino if he is at all.

The Yankees are counting a lot on the three young pitchers but it does
seem they are in better shape than last year.-

Look, the Yankees will be very, very good.  Their offense alone will
carry them a long ways.  But they have some guys getting significantly
older:  Matsui, Damon, Giambi, Pettitte, Mariano, Mussina, Posada,
Abreu....still good players, but the window is closing soon.  Even
Jeter is 33.  Of their everyday lineup, their ages are:

C - Posada (36)
1b - Giambi (37) though I don't know who will actually play 1b on a
regular basis
2b - Cano (25) this guy is a stud
3b - Rodriguez (32)
SS - Jeter (33)
LF - Matsui (33)
CF - Damon (34) though Melky will play a lot
RF - Abreu (33)
DH - Cabrera (23) put Damon here if Melky plays CF

That's an average age of 31.7.  Meanwhile, here's Boston's everyday
lineup:

C - Varitek (35)
1b - Youkilis (28)
2b - Pedroia (24)
3b - Lowell (33)
SS - Lugo (32)
LF - Ramirez (35)
CF - Ellsbury (24)
RF - Drew (32)
DH - Ortiz (32)

That's an average age of 30.5.  Similarly old, but slightly younger.
The window is open a little longer for this group.

Anyway, I see a Yanks-Sox battle to the end, as usual.

John

Well if we assume the Yankees are:

Wang
Pettite
Mussina
Chamberlain
Hughes

I'd say Wang is a very good # 2 but a very suspect #1 who I'd loath to
have pitch a big game.
Pettite will have a lot on his mind the more Clemens keeps this going.
And he is getting older so we'll have to see if he can reinvent
himself so to speak.
Mussina sucks. He is now topping out in the mid 80's and that wont cut
it. IMHO he is the most likely guy to not make Girardi's cut.
Chamberlain is a stud potential guy, but he's gonna need more than 2
pitches now as a starter and people are going to get a better book on
him. He will be held back innings wise so he's fresh, how will that
faze him and if they are dropping in race will it hold?
Hughes is also stud potential but let's see a half let alone full
season of solid baseball before we get too excited here. He will also
be monitored for innings of work.

Kennedy is the least impressive Young Yankee to me but we'll see there
too I guess.
Igawa will still suck

The bullpen is a year older and a Jaba lighter. They did add Hawkins
but not sure I'd size the rings over that one.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Joba has always had 4 pitches in the minors but rarely used the curve
and change last year in the set up role.  His curve, when he did use
it, was knee buckling.  I think he used it on a 3-2 count at least
once last year.  He has the pitches he needs.  But even if he doesn't
make it as a starter, he'll be a top reliever.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Anyone can have 4 in the minors...we'll see if they are major league
quality. It will be a whole new learning curve for him. It is much
easier to work a pitcher into the bullpen in the majors than it is as
a starter. Hence why a lot of teams choose that route. I still think
he'll be successful but if Yankee fans have a spot cleared for his
2008 Cy Young my hunch is they may be disappointed. Over a full career
we'll see but as a starter I'd expect more of Hughes this next year
than him. As for the pitching being better.....with Mussina in the
rotation? Because he showed me zero. Next question is who do you
replace Joba, Hughes and Kennedy with when the race tightens up and
their inning counts are near/at/above what the Yankees want? Igawa?
Marquez? Lastly they got Hawkins who will be nice but he wont solve
all the bullpen issues they have/had. Part of their early problems
were bullpen related and included a horrible Mariano Rivera. I think
the race will be close but to pretend the arrival of three rookies/
virtual rookies in a rotation solves all their woes is wishful
thinking IMHO.
.

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