Re: Ellsbury unproven

richardcarlisle venit, vidit, et dixit:

<snip>

The bottom line is that Ellsbury is an exciting young
player who got off to a hot start and made an important
contribution that was sorely needed due to Manny getting
injured. No one is disputing this. The only question is
the certainty with which one can assert that he will
continue to play at a certain level. My main point is that
we don't have enough data to draw any meaningful/definitive
conclusions and I respectfully disagree with those who think
otherwise.

I almost completely agree with the above. The only distinction
I'd draw is that in addition to the numbers, we also have
the word of scouts, which is also quite positive about Ellsbury's
future.

But the people who seem to be saying that Ellsbury WILL be good,
that he is CERTAIN to be good, that the only question is whether
or not he will be good or great? No, I don't agree with that at
all. Ellsbury has NOT had remarkable minor league numbers. His
minor league numbers were good, not great. His AAA numbers so
far have been particularly unremarkable. He's had limited at bats
there, just as he's had limited at bats in MLB. I can't say for
certain which are more representative of what he will do in the
future, though I certainly hope he hits more like he did in his
limited time in the majors. Developmentally, Ellsbury's minor
league numbers aren't (if I remember correctly) as good as Coco
Crisp's were at the same age. Or if you don't want to bother
with age, they weren't as good as Rudy Pemberton's (including
Rudy Pemberton's first 100 or so at bats in the majors). And
so on. Ellsbury's numbers are good. They're not Andruw Jones
numbers or Carlos Beltran numbers. They're not close to Johnny
Damon's minor league numbers.

I've said these things before and I tried to resist saying them
again, but when richardcarlisle and sarge bilko have said them
in this thread, from what I can tell the message has gotten lost
or dismissed because of the messengers saying it. Some people
are discrediting the arguments because those people are saying
them. Fine. Then count my name among the people who doubt
the certainty of Ellsbury's future excellence. I think it likely
that he'll be good, but I don't think it's a sure thing at all.
Yes, he could turn into Carlos Beltran or Johnny Damon or Brett
Butler (which is who I've been most reminded of). He could also
turn into Coco Crisp or Juan Pierre (neither of whom are
worthless -- and in his last years in Cleveland, Crisp looked
like he was developing into something quite good -- but neither
of whom is likely to get his number retired either).

Is that clear? I like Ellsbury. I want him to do well. I
think he has a good shot to be quite good. I'd start him
over Crisp this year. I'm in no hurry to trade him. And so
on. But I agree with the people who think Ellsbury is not
a sure thing, even if those people are richardcarlisle and
Sarge. I don't want their argument to be dismissed for their
making it; whatever others may think of those two posters,
I think those two are right to question the certainty of
Ellsbury's future excellence. I think Ellsbury will be good.
I don't think that it's a sure thing right now that he will
be good, though I like his chances as much as most and I'm
glad the Red Sox have him.

Catch you later.
--Robert Machemer

--
Robert Paul Aubrey Machemer | For each time he falls, he shall
Amherst College, Math & Classics | rise again, and woe to the wicked!
IF22: Cliff wins best film, cast | --Don Quixote (Man of La Mancha)
"Can't complain; had his chance, and in modern parlance, blew it."
.

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