Re: Santana
- From: bismo@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 31 Oct 2007 11:19:31 -0700
On Oct 31, 2:01 pm, "Fred Burton" <fbur...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
<bi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1193851987.928991.170310@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On Oct 31, 1:25 pm, "Dano" <janeandd...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
<bi...@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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On Oct 31, 1:06 pm, Wayback1918 <wayback1...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
I've seen two separate rumors concerning Santana. Neither from a
credible source.
1. Santana to The Yankees for Hughes, Kennedy and Milkey Cabrera
and
2. Santana to the Red Sox for Buchholz, Lester and Crisp.
Tough call. Either one would be a fair trade for Minnesota, IMHO.
Cabrera and Crisp would start in CF; Coco's a little better
defensively, but Cabrera may have more offensive upside. All four of
the young pitchers are very talented and can step right into the
rotation. I'd rank Buchholz first among the four, and Lester last, so
it's a question of 1 and 4 or 2 and 3. Honestly, I'd make either deal
if I were the Twins, and I'd make the deal too if I were the Yanks or
Boston (provided that I could sign Santana to an extension beyond
2008, of course).
BTW, this is not meant as any kind of slam on Buchholz. He's a
terrific pitching prospect and I really like him. This is just about
the only kind of trade I'd even consider putting him into (maybe also
one for "the other Cabrera"); otherwise, I'd make him completely
untouchable. It's just that Santana is truly the best pitcher in
baseball, and is still in his prime, and would give Boston an
absolutely amazing 1-2 combo with Beckett. Buchholz may very well
become a star, but Santana's already there. Crisp can be easily
replaced with Ellsbury, and Lester's IMHO a good but not great
"prospect" (though I *totally* admire what he's overcome, and the way
he came up big in the World Series).
OK. You do that. How much do you suppose Johan will cost you the
following
year as a free agent?-
He would have already signed through at least 2011. I wouldn't make
the trade if I couldn't get the extension signed. How much would I be
willing to pay? I dunno. $20 million per? I tell ya one thing: If
I "had" to get Santana, I'd try to do it this way rather than waiting
for him to be a free agent, since it's quite possible that someone
else would trade for and extend him.
-Bismo.
I've heard a number of about $25M/yr mentioned for Santana if he goes
FA.-
That's reasonable. I'd still pay it. Heck, as much as I love
Buchholz, the guy is in some lab trying to figure out how to avoid
shoulder fatigue, while Santana's dominating the AL year after the
year. I'd rather have the known superstar than the potential one--but
again, *only* if I could extend Santana (which, as Dano notes, might
not even be viable).
Granted, I'm veering into Vamapatellaville here :-), with all the
hypotheticals that won't ever happen in the real world. But I think
the financials could be easily worked out. Obviously, in this
scenario I'd let Schilling walk. That's $13 million in savings.
Covelli would make about $4 million more than the new 4th OF, so
that's $17 million. Clement's $9.5 million will come off the books,
getting you to $26.5 million savings. Adios Hinske, and that's $2.8
million saved, giving you a total of $29.3 million off the books. Pay
Santana $25 million. Give Lowell a $4 million raise to $13 million
per. That's $29 million, so you're still $300K ahead--and that's
before waving goodbye to Gagne ($4 million-ish) and possibly Tavarez
($3.8 million), not to mention the $9 million increase in the "cap."
Sure, there will be some raises here and there--notably for Youkilis.
(Players like Manny and Papi, who have fluctuating salaries year-to-
year, have the same "cap number" every year--they call it an Average
Annual Value--so there's technically no change in their "salary" even
if they're really getting raises).
So what do we have left? A rotation of Santana-Beckett-Matsuzaka-
Wakefield-Tavarez/low budget vet/Hansack. A bullpen of Papelbon-
Okajima-Delcarmen-Timlin and whatever other guys emerge (Corey,
Hansen, Snyder, low budget types, etc.) A starting nine of Ortiz-
Varitek-Youkilis-Pedroia-Lugo-Lowell-Manny-Ellsbury-Drew. And some
typically uninspiring bench that mixes vets (Cora, maybe Kielty, a
possible free agent CF type) and kids (Moss? Kottaras?). I wouldn't
mind going into battle with that ballclub, which should cost about the
same, and might not have quite the starting pitching or bench depth,
but would have a sick frontline rotation, a fine bullpen, and an
excellent lineup.
-Bismo.
.
- References:
- Santana
- From: Wayback1918
- Re: Santana
- From: bismo
- Re: Santana
- From: Dano
- Re: Santana
- From: bismo
- Re: Santana
- From: Fred Burton
- Santana
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