Re: Dustin Hermanson?

On Sat, 10 Feb 2007 16:59:11 -0500, McDuck
<wallymcduckDELETEME@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

On Sat, 10 Feb 2007 21:00:48 GMT, "gnork" <gnork44@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
quacked:



Why? he is just a good example of how you can put almost anybody in the
sacred "closer" spot and with a little luck get one big year out of him.
Hermanson's is over with, no sense adding him to an allready grossly
overcrowded BP


I agree with the basic point --- we already have too many BP guys to
look at to give anyone else a shot unless he has a proven record of
recent excellence.

But you also illustrate why a proven ace reliever is valuable, even
though it is often possible to get a guy who is v. good off the scrap
heap. The reason is that it is hard to pick the guy who will be good
**this time** from the rest of the guys, and you need to invest SP
time and some games at the MLB level to find out. And by then you have
lost a few games.

A really good reliever might win you 4 or 5 games you otherwise would
not win (with just a decent reliever). But if it takes 4 or 5 blown
games to find that guy, you have gotten no advantage from him. You'd
be better off with the guy who is only pretty good (above average, not
great) but reliably so.

That's *EXACTLY* why I'm nervous about the pen. The team needs to
identify the ace/closer/whatever *quickly*. A revolving door of
auditioners in April and May could be very dangerous. (Though maybe
we can trade Hinske for B.H. Kim if things get really dire ;-)

-Bismo.
.