Re: Alex Gonzalez and Escalating Baseball Salaries

On Sat, 30 Dec 2006 11:40:01 -0500, "Lyford" <LyfordIII@xxxxxxx>
quacked:


"McDuck" <wallymcduckDELETEME@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:2tucp2lj7v0k68dlhrqnbihljd4u80dspe@xxxxxxxxxx
On Sat, 23 Dec 2006 22:15:41 GMT, "gnork" <gnork44@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
quacked:

All in all it was a very
predictable year for him, very much in line with his career. So now he is
a
free agent again, one year older with no signs of change from his
established level. The next thing you know Cincy has signed him to a three
year deal for $14,000,000 dollars. Why did at least one team's perception
of
his value go so high without any significant on field improvement? He will
be 30 before next season begins. The price of mediocrity has gone thru the
roof.


The signing struck me as crazy. Still, two reasons --- defense is
getting a lot more attention from GMs for whatever reason, and AGon
got to play and show his excellent defense on a very big stage.

I think he's the most overrated defensive player in the game whose initials
aren't DJ. I cannot find any evidence to back up the notion that he's an
excellent or exceptional defender. He certainly is smooth and sure-handed -
that's not debateable. But I can't find any objective evidence to suggest
that he makes more plays than an average SS.

Among the 46 ML players with 200+ defensive innings at SS last year, he was
31st in total chances per inning. (Some of that is certainly team and
pitching staff dependent, but Alex Cora, behind the same staff, was 11th.
Lugo was 20th.)

BaseballProspectus FR had him 15 runs above replacement level, 5 runs below
average.

Chris Dial, who liked his defense better than any other source I've seen
(and is the only source I see that has him ahead of Julio Lugo), had him at
3rd best in the AL.

David Pinto's Probabilistic Model Of Range had him slightly above average.



Again, I'm not disputing how good he looked playing SS for Boston in 2006.
I am saying that I can't find any evidence that he's actually, despite how
smooth he looks, an excellent defender.

Now, if a team values defense a lot at SS, the pickings right now are
pretty thin. I do think you still can get excellent defensive SS for a
dime a dozen in the minors if htting is not a factor, but

(1) I may now be wrong (it once seemed v. true but seems less clearly
true now); and

(2) AGon, although a poor hitter, as your stats attest, is not a
hopeless hitter --- just bad by the very high standard of MLB.

I suppose it depends on how you define "hopeless." There were 224 players
with 400+ plate appearances in the Majors last year. 13 of them, including
Alex Gonzalez, made outs in more than 70% of theirs. That seems pretty
hopeless to me.


I didn't want him here, I think he hurt the team badly, and I'm thrilled
that he's gone...


I was pretty negative when he was signed and saw no reason for a
change of heart. I did prefer him to Cora, although I may have been
wrong on that.

As for his defense, he certainly appeared to be an excellent defender
from what we could tell from TV and from comments by experienced
baseball people. I have no way of evaluating the proprietary defensive
stats that rank him low. Quite frankly, I am not at all convinced that
the defense stats are very good --- way to much variation from year to
year to make me think they are measuring important stuff very well.

That said, I make no claims for his defense, other than that he was
thought to be v. good and performed in Boston at a level that led many
baseball people to believe he was v. good. They may all be wrong, but
there seems little doubt that he got his good contract in large part
because of that perception.

As for his hitting, I was clearly not defending it. But he is a lot
better hitter than most non-MLB players, including most non-MLB
players capable of playing a good SS in the majors.
.