- From: Pearly Soames <mr_soames@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Wed, 06 Dec 2006 09:26:26 -0500
But none of those factors, in my view, accounts for the huge leap in
era. This is this stat that jumps out at me: Home Runs allowed.
2002 - 13 (in 107.2 ip) - a rate of 1 hr every 8.3 ip
2003 - 9 (in 142.0 ip) - a rate of 1 hr every 15.6 ip
2004 - 16 (in 156.2 ip) - a rate of 1 hr every 9.8 ip
2005 - 14 (in 178.2 ip) - a rate of 1 hr every 12.8 ip
2006 - 36 (in 204.2 ip) - a rate of 1 hr every 5.7 ip
THAT is the reason his era spiked. The other peripherals are pretty
normal for his career, taking into account the transition from NL
(facing a pitcher) to AL (facing a DH). The key question is this: why
are his HR allowed figures so out of whack in 2006? Is this
symptomatic of something going wrong with him (and thus, we should be
gravely concerned)? Or is it an anomaly (in which case, we shouldn't
I looked up his BABIP numbers, expecting to find that the Sox' defense (and some bad luck) adversely affected his performance as well. Actually, his BABIP was low (.265, compared to .294 and .292 the previous two years, and compared to .317 for the Sox overall in 2006). So he actually got better defense and luck from the team than did the other Sox pitchers. It seems that more than his share of balls that should have been in-play (and hits) ended up going out of the park.