Re: No RS in top 25 pitcher list
- From: Bob-Nob <rpmachemer@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 2 Mar 2006 12:26:40 -0500
McDuck venit, vidit, et dixit:
NYY has one guy on the top 25 (RJ), but none for Boston. One former RS
in the top 5. I guess the roto guys are worried about Schilling's
ankle and haven't listened to McKeon on our new star pitcher.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/daily/article/top-50-starting-pitchers-for-2006-part-1/
I don't agree (with a poster whose post did not appear on my server)
that the article is completely worthless, but I don't necessarily agree
with it totally either. I followed Randy Johnson's "peripherals" and
they were not much better than and ERA of 3.79. In fact, DIPS suggested
his ERA was more worthy of a 3.99 ERA (i.e., that's what his dERA was).
Now a lot of Johnson's dERA of 3.99 is the result of his allowing 32
home runs last year, and it was the worst home run rate of his career
(at a glance), so it's entirely possible he will bounce back this year,
but I don't think it's accurate to say that his peripherals indicate an
ERA of much better than 3.79. They indicated an ERA of worse than it.
I wouldn't be surprised if he rebounded and pitched better in 2006, but
it's not because his peripherals suggested he was better than he looked
in 2005.
And I don't understand picking Lieber 25th -- Lieber is essentially
Tim Wakefield plus a greater likelihood to get injured. (That's not a
knock against Tim Wakefield, and perhaps that just means that Wakefield
is one of the 25 best picks in a silly roto game or something... I dunno.
This is why I dislike roto. I'd imagine nothing is done to adjust for
league and park, so Wakefield gets penalized for playing in a DH-league
and in a hitters' park, so his 106 ERA+ in 225 IP would be worth a lot
less than Lieber's 108 ERA+ in 218 IP, when in reality, Lieber's only
marginally better).
Catch you later.
--Robert Machemer
--
Robert Paul Aubrey Machemer | "For each time he falls, he shall
Amherst College, Math & Classics | rise again, and woe to the wicked!"
IF1, IF3, IF9: best films, cast | --Don Quixote (Man of La Mancha)
"I know about society. I am taking a Sociology course." -- from asbb-r
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