Re: 2nd Math exp.

In article <Xns993F5F7C546EEgoddardb@xxxxxxxxxxx>,
Bart Goddard <goddardbe@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

A great celestial being comes to earth and proposes that
people play the following game with him. There are two
boxes A and B. A is open and has 1000 bucks in it. B is
closed and has either nothing or 1,000,000 bucks in it.
You're allowed to choose between taking 1. Only B or
2. Both A and B. Wait, there's more. The being is very good
at predicting the actions of humans. He is going to
predict what choice you will make. If he predicts that
you'll take only B, then he will put a million bucks in
B. If he predicts that you'll take both boxes, then he
leaves B empty. Further, 1000 people have played the game
before you, and the being has been correct every time.

Now it's your turn. What choice would you make?

Just to make sure I understand...

* My choices are: { B only } or { A and B } -- { A only } is not a
choice.
* The Great Spaghetti Monster can predict my action, and is always right.
* If GSM predicts (and is right!) that I will pick { B only }, he'll put
a million dollars in the box.

I pick B-only.

My reasoning: $1000 isn't really that big of a deal, in terms of
missed-opportunity. Maybe GSM just got lucky on his previous
predictions, but I'm guessing that he's really smart. Worst-case
scenario, I'll ask Mrs. Misc to stand in line & pick both ;)

Actually, though, "very good at predicting the actions of humans"
probably means that someone did a study on this and learned that 99% of
humans pick both (bird in the hand, and all that), and so I go home with
an empty box.

But a cool empty box from an alien! I wonder if I can sell it on eBay...

--
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